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Daily Update — November 04, 2025

Germany’s Energy Transition; Cambodian Rice Exports; and Private Equity Targets HVAC

Today is Tuesday, November 4, 2025, and here’s your curated selection of Essential Intelligence on global markets from S&P Global. Subscribe to be notified of each new Daily Update.

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Energy Transition & Sustainability

Listen: Explaining Germany's energy transition 'reality check' | Energy Evolution

 

Germany’s energy ministry published a report highlighting the need for a reality check on electricity demand forecasts and the implications for renewable energy expansion.

 

Andreas Franke, editorial lead at S&P Global Commodity Insights, and Henning Gloystein, managing director of energy, climate and resources at Eurasia Group, examined how revised projections could alter Berlin's solar and wind expansion targets and redirect the country's path to 80% renewable power by 2030. The conversation delved into the challenges facing German industry amid high energy costs and whether the country's 2045 climate targets are realistic given its planned reliance on gas-fired power generation. Franke and Gloystein also discussed how this recalibrated approach signals broader challenges facing the global energy transition and if similar reality checks are needed in other European nations.

Global Trade

Cambodia's rice export outlook driven by paddy and fragrant rice demand

 

Cambodian rice exports rose 14% year over year in 2024, fueled by a significant rise in paddy exports to Vietnam, which accounted for 89% of total exports. This trend highlights Cambodia's reliance on this sector.

 

However, market dynamics are shifting as Cambodia focuses on milled rice exports. Countries in Europe and Asia are increasingly interested in Cambodia's fragrant rice varieties, such as Phka Malis and Sen Kra Ob. This interest has resulted in a 23% year-over-year increase in exports to Europe and a 36% increase to Asia, demonstrating Cambodia's ability to diversify its market presence and seize emerging opportunities within the global rice industry.

Private Markets

HVAC deals demonstrate private equity's appetite for add-ons

 

Robust private equity-backed transaction activity targeting the heating, ventilation and air-conditioning market demonstrates that add-ons remain a key strategy for creating value in the middle market, even in a record year for megadeals. Private equity firms completed 32 add-on transactions targeting HVAC services providers globally this year through June 9, up 88% from 17 in the prior-year period, according to a midyear analysis by investment bank Capstone Partners. Just over half of the 77 M&A transactions in the global HVAC services market during the period were backed by private equity firms or their portfolio companies, the report added.

 

"Private equity firms love situations where they can buy a cornerstone company, a platform, and then build around that platform," said Alberto Sinesi, a director at PKF Investment Banking, which monitors HVAC M&As in the US.

In case you missed it

  • Shares in US health insurers fell after the release of third-quarter results, which were marked by rising costs and political uncertainty.
  • Freight rates for very large crude carriers in Asia have risen and are now at their highest levels since the post-COVID-19 recovery. Congestion at Chinese ports and rising loading demand are slowing fleet turnaround, tightening regional tonnage availability amid growing global inquiry.
  • The S&P 500 increased 18% from the start of the year to Oct. 28, closing at its third-highest level. However, the rise has not been smooth, with the index recouping sharp losses from earlier in the month.

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