Daily Update — May 6, 2025
Global Economic Update; US Green Hydrogen Uncertainties; and RSA Conference
Today is Tuesday, May 6, 2025, and here’s your curated selection of Essential Intelligence on global markets from S&P Global. Subscribe to be notified of each new Daily Update.
Economy
Global Macro Update: Seismic Shift In US Trade Policy Will Slow World Growth
The recent shift in US trade policy has created significant turmoil in markets and raised concerns about a potential global economic slowdown, prompting S&P Global Ratings to update its macroeconomic outlook. The increase in US import tariffs, along with retaliatory measures from trading partners and ongoing market fluctuations, has shaken market confidence and pricing, with the real economy expected to feel the effects, though the extent remains uncertain.
S&P Global Ratings revised its GDP growth forecasts downward for most countries while raising inflation expectations for the US. While a notable slowdown in growth is anticipated, a recession in the US is not expected at this time. However, risks to the baseline outlook are skewed to the downside, particularly regarding the potential for a more significant spillover effect from the tariff shock into the real economy, leaving the long-term dynamics of the global economy uncertain.
Energy Transition & Sustainability
US green hydrogen industry faces policy uncertainty, but executives upbeat on long term
The US green hydrogen industry has developed slower than anticipated. Analysts have indicated that the country is unlikely to achieve its goal of reducing hydrogen costs to $1 per kilogram by 2031, a target known as the "Hydrogen Shot," established by the US Energy Department under the Biden administration.
The industry faces significant challenges, including the impact of tariffs from the Trump administration, which have raised costs for green hydrogen by 14%. However, the most pressing concern is the uncertainty surrounding incentives and funding. Recent legislative measures that provided tax credits for hydrogen, known as 45Q and 45V, could be in jeopardy as the current administration seeks to roll back much of the clean energy policy initiated under Biden. Despite this, industry executives are still optimistic about green hydrogen’s long-term growth potential as several projects move forward, such as a newly commissioned hydrogen liquefaction plant in Louisiana.
Artificial Intelligence
Listen: RSA Conference Preview
The annual RSA Conference on information security took place last week, and it arrived during a very active security market. Ahead of the conference, analysts Garrett Bekker and Dan Kennedy and research director Scott Crawford returned to the “Next in Tech” podcast to discuss their expectations for the conference with host Eric Hanselman.
AI was expected to be front and center at the conference, with agentic AI being examined as a way to scale up security capabilities. AI capabilities have been part of security tools for many years, and the challenge has always been building trust in automated actions. However, it will take time before autonomous actions are turned on.
In case you missed it
- Investors are demanding higher returns for parking their money in investment-grade US corporate debt amid a broader reassessment of market risk stemming from changes to tariff policy that roiled financial markets this month.
- A natural resources deal between the US and Ukraine might revive a diplomatic push for peace with Russia, but it failed to convince oil and gas markets of any imminent breakthrough that would ease sanctions and increase supply.
- A former head of the US Federal Energy Regulatory Commission expects that President Donald Trump will moderate some of his anti-renewable energy policies due to economic realities and industry pushback.
Upcoming events
- EU/US Tariffs Showdown: Consequences and Alternatives for the European Trade Landscape | May 14 (Webinar)
- The cybersecurity market in 2025: The Only Constant is Change | May 14 (Webinar)