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Daily Update — March 6, 2026

Middle East Maritime Risk; AI and Index Methodology; and AES’ Take-Private Deal

Today is Friday, March 6, 2026, and here’s your curated selection of Essential Intelligence on global markets from S&P Global. Subscribe to be notified of each new Daily Update.

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Global Trade

Marine war insurance for Hormuz dries up as Middle East war intensifies

 

Ships transiting the Strait of Hormuz, which is the route for 20% of global seaborne oil and gas,  face severe difficulties obtaining hull war insurance cover amid escalating war in the Middle East. Following sustained US and Israeli airstrikes beginning Feb. 28, Iranian retaliatory attacks on the infrastructure of its Gulf neighbors and threats to attack ships in the strait have prompted insurers to largely refuse coverage for vessels attempting passage.

 

Hull war insurance premiums for vessels heading for the Gulf, but not breaching the strait, have quadrupled to 1% of ship value for seven days of cover. All 12 members of the International Group of P&I Clubs — a risk pool that covers 90% of the world’s oceangoing tonnage — have canceled certain war coverage with 72-hour notice. Major carriers are avoiding transit through the strait, causing vessel buildup and forcing searches for alternative ports. Ports themselves face collateral damage risks. Insurers are also monitoring the potential resumption of Houthi attacks in the Red Sea, though alternative routes exist there, unlike for the Strait of Hormuz.

Artificial Intelligence

Seasoning to Taste

 

AI enthusiasm has dramatically reshaped markets, with AI-focused companies experiencing significant growth. The collective valuation of the 10 largest venture-backed US companies — including AI leaders OpenAI, Anthropic and Databricks — has surged 1,500% since March 2021. If these companies were to join the S&P 500, assuming full IPOs of all stock, they would represent about 4.5% of the index, exceeding the entire energy sector.

 

However, the current S&P 500 methodology requires a 12-month “seasoning period” post-IPO, along with financial viability and liquidity thresholds. This waiting period helps distinguish sustainable valuations from temporary hype and addresses concerns of share lockups affecting trackers’ ability to replicate index weights.

 

The AI boom has sparked debate about expediting IPO eligibility. While the S&P 500 maintains its seasoning requirement, other benchmarks of S&P Dow Jones Indices already permit accelerated entry under specific conditions.

Private Markets

AES shares fall after long-awaited $10.7B take-private acquisition is announced

 

Shares of US utility and renewables company AES fell 17% intraday on March 2 after it announced a $10.7 billion take-private deal led by BlackRock subsidiary Global Infrastructure Management and EQT, with backing from the California Public Employees’ Retirement System and Qatar Investment Authority. The all-cash transaction values each share at $15, representing a 40.3% premium to AES’ 30-day average before the media announcement of a potential acquisition in July 2025. Jefferies analysts deemed the premium “disappointing” for shareholders.

 

Among the reasons AES gave for pursuing the deal were substantial capital needs for data center infrastructure build-out, rising equipment costs and expiring tax credits following federal legislation that eliminated wind and solar incentives. Without the merger, expected to close in late 2026 or early 2027, AES said it would have to “materially reduce or eliminate” dividends or issue equity on potentially unfavorable terms.

In case you missed it

  • China is facing a major LNG supply test as the war in the Middle East raises spot prices and uncertainty around cargo availability.
  • The global aluminum market is bracing for supply disruptions, heightened volatility and margin pressure as energy, logistics and geopolitics converge.
  • The S&P 500 fell 0.9% month over month in February as AI disruption fears hit software and insurance stocks, while AI companies faced pressure over high valuations and rising capital expenditure.

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