Daily Update — June 26, 2026
Europe’s Stagflation Risks; US AI Bill; and Australia’s Proposed Capital Gains Tax Reform
Today is Friday, June 26, 2026, and here’s your curated selection of Essential Intelligence on global markets from S&P Global. Subscribe to be notified of each new Daily Update.
Economy
Economic Outlook Europe Q3 2026: Energy Shock Rekindles Stagflation Risks
The Middle East war continues to influence macroeconomic conditions in Europe. S&P Global Ratings’ new baseline is largely consistent with its interim forecast revision in April as oil and gas price assumptions have shifted only slightly and the region’s first-quarter GDP growth broadly aligned with expectations.
However, the balance of risks is changing quickly. Upside scenarios are becoming more likely, though a rapid and sustained recovery in oil and gas flows remains uncertain. To reflect this, S&P Global Ratings introduced two alternative scenarios: severe and milder. Under the severe scenario, a spike in oil prices and tightening financial conditions would push European economies into recession by end-2026. In the milder scenario, a quick and sustained decline in oil prices would cause GDP to rise an average 0.25 percentage point and likely prevent the European Central Bank and Bank of England from hiking rates in September.
Artificial Intelligence
Senate Judiciary advances NO FAKES Act on unanimous vote
The US Senate Judiciary Committee advanced the Nurture Originals, Foster Art, and Keep Entertainment Safe Act of 2026 to the Senate floor, with support from a coalition spanning Hollywood, the recording industry and major technology firms. The act, also known as NO FAKES, would create a federal right over a person’s voice and visual likeness and establish civil liability for the production, distribution and hosting of unauthorized AI-generated replicas.
Sens. Marsha Blackburn (R-Tenn.) and Chris Coons (D-Del.), the lead sponsors, framed the bill as a guardrail against deepfakes. "AI should empower innovation – not give scammers and online predators a free pass to exploit someone's voice and visual likeness without permission," Blackburn said. However, critics said that the legislation in its current form could push platforms to excessively remove lawful content and fails to establish the national standard its sponsors promised.
Private Markets
Why 1 July 2027 Could Become a Critical Valuation Date for Private Assets in Australia
Australia’s proposed 2026–27 Federal Budget capital gains tax reforms could make July 1, 2027, an important valuation date for private assets. From that date, the government is looking to replace the current 50% capital gains tax discount with cost base indexation and introduce a minimum 30% tax rate on capital gains. In their announced form, the proposals could create a significant valuation challenge for private asset holders.
The reforms represent a reset of valuations that is straightforward for listed assets, but significantly more complex for private markets. For private capital managers, the key issue is that gains before and after July 1, 2027, will be treated differently. Private assets will require a supportable and well-documented value, which could affect tax outcomes, investor allocations, unit pricing, fund accounting, audit review and potential future disputes.
In case you missed it
- India’s Ambuja Cements collaborated with UK-based Leilac to build a commercial-scale pathway for low-carbon cement production.
- S&P Global’s Flash Purchasing Managers’ Index showed that Japan’s output growth improved in June, despite headwinds from the Middle East war.
- The Netherlands is weighing the development of further strategic gas reserves in addition to a 5-terawatt-hour stock it plans to build at its Alkmaar storage site.
Upcoming events
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