Daily Update — June 18, 2025
Pragmatic Energy Transition; the Shadow Fleet; and OPEC Trimmed Demand Growth Estimate
Today is Wednesday, June 18, 2025, and here’s your curated selection of Essential Intelligence on global markets from S&P Global. Subscribe to be notified of each new Daily Update.
Energy Transition & Sustainability
Industry leaders call for pragmatic energy transition without sidelining fossil fuels
At the Energy Asia conference in Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia, held June 16–18, industry leaders from Asia and the Middle East emphasized the need for pragmatic energy transition pathways that allow fossil fuels to continue supporting economic growth and energy demands in developing countries. They pointed out the stark contrast between the aggressive calls from some developed nations to phase out fossil fuels and the reality of insufficient financial support for developing countries, particularly in light of geopolitical tensions that have heightened concerns over energy security and supply shortages.
The leaders advocated for a balanced approach where fossil fuels coexist with renewable energy sources. They suggested that instead of outright phasing out fossil fuels, a more realistic strategy would involve implementing effective decarbonization measures, such as carbon capture and storage technologies, to manage their impact on the environment while still meeting the energy needs of developing nations.
Global Trade
Listen: Shedding Light on the Shadow Fleet
In this episode of “The Decisive” podcast, host Kristen Hallam dives into the complex world of the maritime shadow fleet, exploring its evolution since the oil price cap was introduced Dec. 5, 2022. Joined by S&P Global Market Intelligence Senior Supply Chain Analyst Ines Nastali, the discussion covers how these oil tankers operate outside traditional regulatory frameworks, often evading government sanctions.
Listeners will gain insights into the shadow fleet’s size and characteristics, including its estimated 940 tankers, many of which may not meet modern safety standards. Nastali shares key statistics, including the significant increase in shadow fleet activity and vessels’ sophisticated tactics to circumvent sanctions, such as turning off identification signals and engaging in ship-to-ship transfers.
Oil & Gas
OPEC trims 2025 oil demand growth estimate but hikes ‘call’ on its crude
OPEC has slightly revised its 2025 global oil demand growth estimate downward to 1.29 million barrels per day, a reduction from the previous estimate of 1.3 million b/d. However, the organization anticipates increasing demand for both its crude oil and that of its Russia-led allies over the next two years, suggesting a competitive advantage over rivals in the Americas. The updated forecast predicts global oil demand will reach 105.1 million b/d in 2025 and 106.4 million b/d in 2026.
In addition, OPEC has adjusted its "call" on OPEC+ crude, which refers to the amount that needs to be produced to maintain market balance. This figure is projected to be 42.7 million b/d in 2025 and 43.2 million b/d in 2026, reflecting increases of 100,000 b/d and 300,000 b/d, respectively, compared with prior estimates.
In case you missed it
- The South Korean government is prioritizing energy security and will monitor and manage financial market volatility amid rising geopolitical tensions following Israel's airstrike on Iran, given the country's status as the world's fourth-largest and Asia's third-largest crude importer.
- Egypt may have procured about 150 LNG cargoes through to summer 2026, signaling a major policy shift as it faces a widening gap between domestic gas production and rising energy demand, according to multiple market participants.
- Project finance collateralized loan obligations are an increasingly favored asset class in Asia-Pacific. S&P Global Ratings expects that momentum to continue, given the solid financing needs of infrastructure sectors.
Upcoming events
- Building Climate Resilience: A Bottom-Up Approach to Physical Risk Assessment at the Asset | June 19 (In-person: Paris)
- Sustainability Unchained: Understanding The S&P Global Supply Chain ESG Solution Methodology | June 19 (Webinar)
- Navigating Global and Asia-Pacific Economic Prospects Amid US Policy Changes and Tariffs | June 23 (Webinar)
The next edition of the Daily Update will be published Monday, June 23.