Daily Update — June 12, 2025
Early Warning Signals; Asia Tech Disruptions; and Private Equity and Methane
Today is Thursday, June 12, 2025, and here’s your curated selection of Essential Intelligence on global markets from S&P Global. Subscribe to be notified of each new Daily Update.
Economy
Navigating Uncertainties with the Early Warning Signals (EWS) Framework
The global macroeconomic landscape cautiously recovered in 2024, with the number of global defaults down, according to S&P Global Ratings. While inflation is easing, the global economy still faces uncertainty regarding US tariffs. Under these circumstances, it is vital for businesses to proactively monitor credit risk as they navigate the ever-changing business environment.
S&P Global Market Intelligence’s RiskGaugeTM Desktop provides timely warning signals for early detection of entities with a genuine risk of defaulting, expressed in an intuitive, traffic light color scale.
Global Trade
Tariff Disruption In Asia Tech: Vietnam And India Are Key Markets To Watch Outside Of China
The future of US tariffs on Asia's tech-manufacturing sector remains uncertain, but it is anticipated that trade barriers will be most pronounced between the US and China. According to S&P Global Ratings, companies that significantly rely on China's technology production and the US market are particularly vulnerable. This includes smartphone manufacturers such as Apple and its suppliers, as well as PC-makers. These businesses are expected to pass increased costs to consumers, potentially leading to diminished demand, especially among price-sensitive individuals.
In contrast, advanced chipmakers are less susceptible to tariff risks due to their strong bargaining power and a growing revenue stream from AI. AI servers shipped to the US from Mexico are currently exempt from new tariffs as they are covered by the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement.
Private Markets
Listen: Exploring private equity's role in stopping methane leaks
In this episode of the “All Things Sustainable” podcast, hosts Lindsey Hall and Esther Whieldon explore private equity’s role in eliminating methane emissions, including at abandoned oil and gas wells.
Methane is the second-largest contributor to global warming behind CO2, and the fossil fuel sector is responsible for nearly one-third of methane emissions from human activity. Record production of oil, gas and coal, combined with limited mitigation efforts, has kept emissions above 120 million metric tons annually, according to the International Energy Agency’s “Global Methane Tracker 2025.” The IEA called methane abatement a “crucial opportunity” to reduce near-term global warming. Our hosts sat with industry experts to discuss how private equity firms deal with this greenhouse gas.
In case you missed it
- US-China trade tensions could affect agricultural trade between the two countries, particularly for soybeans. An escalation in tensions could strengthen trade ties between Russia and China.
- Russia’s automotive market, particularly for passenger vehicles, has been significantly disrupted in the past three years by sanctions, reshaping its landscape.
- German solar market values plunged to a five-year low in May as strong renewables generation lifted the number of negative hourly prices to a record high.
Upcoming events
- The AI Arms Race: Who Will Win? | June 17 (Webinar)
- The New Tariff Reality: Preparing for Disruption, Defending Your Margins | June 18 (Webinar)
- Building Climate Resilience: A Bottom-Up Approach to Physical Risk Assessment at the Asset | June 19 (In-person: Paris)