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S&P Global — 21 January 2025
By Nathan Hunt
Start every business day with our analyses of the most pressing developments affecting markets today, alongside a curated selection of our latest and most important insights on the global economy
The conversation around sustainability has pivoted in recent years. While many companies and governments continue to express support for sustainability efforts as extreme weather events, such as the recent fires in California, grow more frequent, energy security, affordability and economic growth are taking precedence in policy discussions. President Donald Trump has returned to the White House, boasting of a growth and energy agenda and a pivot away from environmental regulations and green energy policies. For these reasons, S&P Global Sustainable1’s list of the top 10 sustainability trends for 2025 focuses on the megatrends that will continue to define sustainability during a period of retrenchment.
Globally, sustainability policies will be in flux this year as newly elected governments intend to prioritize growth and energy security over regulation and energy transition. Local and state governments in the US continue to support sustainability and transition efforts, even as the federal government takes a new approach to energy and the environment. The energy transition remains important for decarbonization efforts, but the fate of the Inflation Reduction Act will be in question under the Trump administration. In many parts of the world, the emphasis on a “just transition” reflects tension and resentment over ambitious energy targets set by wealthy nations.
Political rhetoric aside, the physical impact of climate risks remains a concern for financial markets. Companies, insurers, lenders and investors have legitimate concerns over how mounting heat and extreme weather will affect their bottom line. Adaptation plans for climate change remain a rarity in many industries. To address these needs, sustainability reports remain crucial, but there are concerns that the heavy burden of reporting may slow adoption for many.
Climate finance and carbon markets have often lagged goals and needs. However, a shifting of multilateral lending institutions and tighter regulations point toward a future where climate finance and carbon markets are fit for purpose. Concerns remain over the fate of biodiversity initiatives in this changing political climate. But biodiversity loss and climate change are interrelated issues demanding nature-based solutions to address compounding risks. With geopolitical tensions on the rise, supply chain screening will become important to prevent environmental regulatory arbitrage.
Finally, AI remains a key sustainability trend. Thinking beyond the pros and cons that AI could bring to sustainability and climate change mitigation, datacenters that power AI will increase energy demand and likely delay the achievement of net-zero targets as they are expected to rely on natural gas.
Today is Tuesday, January 21, 2025, and here is today’s essential intelligence.
For the past five years, we have written about the sustainability trends that S&P Global expects to drive business strategies in the year ahead. This year, we’re taking a slightly different approach. In 2025, we widen our view to reflect on the megatrends that will impact sustainability strategies. We’re doing this by asking: What is happening in the world that will affect sustainability? This shift reflects the sea changes we’re witnessing in sustainability conversations around the globe.
—Read the article from S&P Global Sustainable1
Expected post-election shifts in US economic policy remain the focus of financial markets. Consistent with recent favorable US growth signals and heightened concern over inflation prospects, futures markets now discount just one 25-basis-point rate cut by the US Federal Reserve during 2025. The upward pressure on US yields has continued accordingly, with the 10-year Treasury yield of 4.8% at the time of writing about 120 basis points above the September 2024 low (at the time of the Fed’s initial, bold rate cut). Spillover effects on other sovereign yields have also been increasingly apparent recently, and we have revised up our forecasts for many key economies, notably including the UK.
—Read the article from S&P Global Market Intelligence
Meet The Market Measure — a new video series providing fresh perspectives on markets through the lens of indices. Each month, get access to insights across geographies, asset classes and investment strategies. The first installment explores the dynamics that drove performance trends around the world in 2024 as well as the potential implications of all-time highs for market participants.
—Watch the full video from S&P Dow Jones Indices
Singapore's annual bio-bunker sales continued to rise in 2024, following a steep growth trajectory and reaching a new record high of 882,830 mt, an increase of 68.4% year over year. "Singapore grew as a multi-fuel bunkering hub in 2024. Sales of alternative fuels crossed 1 million mt for the first time, with 0.88 million mt of biofuel blends and 0.46 million mt of LNG supplied," Singapore's Minister of State for Law and Transport Murali Pillai said Jan. 15.
—Read the article from S&P Global Commodity Insights
The stainless steel scrap outlook in Europe remains foggy as the market enters the new year on the back of waning demand and weak industrial activity in Europe, alongside continued finished stainless steel pricing pressure from Chinese overcapacity. Scrap market liquidity remained quiet in Europe in the opening week of 2025 as higher relative prices in India saw stainless scrap prices on a CIF Nhava Sheva/Mundra basis around a $100/mt premium compared to CIF Rotterdam in early January, leaving Europe as a less favorable destination for stainless scrap, market sources told Commodity Insights.
—Read the article from S&P Global Commodity Insights
As the old Danish proverb goes, it is difficult to make predictions, especially about the future, but we’re going to kick off the New Year with an exploration of where technology is headed a little further out in the future. While there have been headline-grabbing projections about AI and other buzzy topics, there are underlying connections across the technology landscape that are weaving the progress of the disparate branches of technology together.
—Listen and subscribe to the podcast from S&P Global Market Intelligence
S&P Global Ratings’ Global Credit Outlook 2025 presents its credit and macroeconomic outlooks for the year ahead, including its base-case forecasts, assumptions and key risks. At a time when key themes and risks appear to be increasingly interconnected, we invite you to explore the depth and breadth of expertise offered by S&P Global Ratings analysts and experts as we scan the horizon of what promises to be another challenging period for global markets.
—Register for the webinar from S&P Global Ratings