Daily Update — February 27, 2026
Russia-Ukraine Conflict and Oil; AI Impact on CLO Ratings; and Wood Pellet Trade Flows
Today is Friday, February 27, 2026, and here’s your curated selection of Essential Intelligence on global markets from S&P Global. Subscribe to be notified of each new Daily Update.
Global Trade
Four years that shook the Russian oil market
The Russia-Ukraine conflict has had a profound impact on oil prices, crude trade flows, sanctions policy and energy security in the four years since it began. Hopes for an end to the war rose in early 2026, with US President Donald Trump pushing for a peace deal. But even if an agreement is reached, some of the changes triggered by the invasion are likely to have a lasting impact on oil markets.
"If there is a deal that ends the Russia-Ukraine war — and sanctions are eventually removed — it will raise the price of Russian crude relative to global benchmarks, but won't lead to higher export volumes, at least not right away," said Jim Burkhard, head of research for oil markets at S&P Global Energy CERA.
Artificial Intelligence
Scenario Analysis: First Look At How AI Disruption Could Affect U.S. CLO Ratings
Software companies have accounted for a significant share of private equity deals in the past decade. Many of the resulting broadly syndicated and middle-market loans have found their way into collateralized loan obligation (CLO) portfolios.
In a Feb. 20 report, S&P Global Ratings analysts reviewed various stress scenarios for US CLO transactions, noting that the repricing of risk in the software sector exposes companies to more refinancing risk, or the challenge a company faces when it issues new loans to retire outstanding debt. Still, the analysts found the structure of CLOs would continue to protect holders of senior notes during times of market stress.
Energy Transition & Sustainability
Weather and Power Plants Drive Wood Fuel Prices Up
Environmental regulations and rising natural gas costs have increasingly led households and power generators in Europe to use wood pellets as a lower-carbon alternative to coal.
The US is the largest global exporter of wood pellets, mainly supplying the UK, EU and Japan, while intra-Asian trade is dominated by Southeast Asian countries supplying Japan and South Korea. In Europe, Poland faces a particular challenge: It competes with other EU neighbors and major global buyers for supplies and is heavily reliant on imports from Ukraine.
In case you missed it
- Ethos Technologies CFO Chris Capozzi discussed the life insurance-focused agency’s Jan. 29 IPO, growth plans, sales outlook, AI underwriting and competitive advantages with S&P Global Market Intelligence.
- Canada’s investment landscape is dominated by the S&P/TSX 60, the benchmark comprising the country’s largest companies. But another group of companies, known as the “Next 40,” also deserves attention, according to S&P Dow Jones Indices.
- The US Supreme Court’s Feb. 20 ruling on President Donald Trump’s country-specific tariffs is unlikely to have a material impact on soybean trade flows between the US and China.
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