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Daily Update — February 16, 2026

Japan’s Decarbonization; AI Disruption on Software; and 2026 Private Equity Outlook

Today is Monday, February 16, 2026, and here’s your curated selection of Essential Intelligence on global markets from S&P Global. Subscribe to be notified of each new Daily Update.

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Energy Transition & Sustainability

Prof. Jun Arima (JOGMEC) on Energy Security, Nuclear and Japan’s Path to Decarbonization

 

In this episode of the “CERAWeek Podcast with Atul Arya,” Jun Arima, chief sustainability officer at the Japan Organization for Metals and Energy Security, discussed how Japan is recalibrating its energy strategy by placing energy security alongside decarbonization. Arima and Arya, S&P Global Energy’s chief energy strategist, discussed what this shift means for Asia and the global energy transition.

 

As energy, technology and geopolitics increasingly converge, these questions will be central to the dialogue at CERAWeek 2026. Join us March 23–27 in Houston.

Artificial Intelligence

Recalibrating The Competitive Moat: Assessing Durability In An AI-Infused Software Landscape

 

New products from AI-native companies are increasing uncertainty about whether AI will support or replace existing software offerings. This has triggered a market reevaluation and destabilized the financial outlooks of software companies that lack business moats — a set of characteristics that provide a competitive advantage. The software industry’s long-standing advantages — high barriers to entry, recurring revenue, established pricing and strong profitability — are being challenged by the integration of AI into software offerings and workflows.

 

S&P Global Ratings considers established platform leaders with deep domain expertise and proprietary data to be best positioned to navigate disruption from AI-native entrants. Less differentiated, rule-based, point-solutions software providers will likely face margin pressure and displacement risks.

Private Markets

Private Equity Outlook 2026

 

Optimism is returning to the private equity industry, but it is tempered by structural challenges that could take years to resolve. After a prolonged period of high interest rates, weak deal activity and a lack of distributions, many believe that the worst may be over. Falling borrowing costs, a gradually reopening IPO market and improving market sentiment suggest that 2026 could mark the beginning of a more durable recovery.

 

Yet, the industry remains burdened by its legacy. Private equity firms are sitting on a record backlog of unsold companies worth trillions of dollars. These assets, often acquired when credit was cheap and valuations were lofty, have proven difficult to exit. Even if deal activity accelerates, clearing the backlog will likely take years. Returns remain a central concern. For much of the past two decades, private equity reliably outperformed public markets, justifying long lockup periods and high fees. Now, private equity returns are lagging public benchmarks.

In case you missed it

  • Cash gas prices in the US Northeast remain elevated as cold temperatures have boosted gas demand and production has decreased.
  • The current interest rates of US credit card lenders are likely to remain, even with President Donald Trump's campaign to cap them at 10%.
  • Asia-Pacific economies were resilient in 2025, delivering stronger-than-expected growth despite persistent geopolitical tensions and tariff headwinds. Throughout the year, central banks in the region remained vigilant by closely monitoring economic indicators to ensure their policy decisions were timely and effective.

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