Skip to Content Skip to Menu Skip to Footer

Daily Update — February 11, 2026

Japan’s Carbon Price Cap; AI Boom or Bust; and Private Credit’s Next Steps

Today is Wednesday, February 11, 2026, and here’s your curated selection of Essential Intelligence on global markets from S&P Global. Subscribe to be notified of each new Daily Update.

Subscribe

Energy Transition & Sustainability

Japan's carbon price cap disappoints JCM developers, revision seen unlikely

 

The proposed price corridor for Japan’s Green Transformation emissions trading system has fallen short of market expectations, dampening private investment momentum in carbon offset projects as the country seeks to scale its international climate finance mechanism, according to stakeholders in Japan's Joint Crediting Mechanism (JCM). The Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry on Dec. 19, 2025, proposed an initial price corridor of ¥1,700-¥4,300 per metric ton of CO2 equivalent for fiscal 2026, applicable to credits generated under the JCM and domestic J-Credits.

 

"¥4,000-¥6,000 ($25.51-$38.26) is the price range that gives Japanese JCM developers confidence. Some large trading houses still aim to develop below $10/mtCO2e, but most stakeholders expected [the former range] before the announcement," one Tokyo-based carbon project development consultant said, adding that the recent corridor has demotivated many potential investors.

Artificial Intelligence

What Risks Could Lead AI's Spending Boom To Bust?

 

AI investment shows no sign of slowing. Aggregate hyperscaler capital expenditure is forecast to hit about $625 billion in 2026, with a projected $5 trillion in total spend by 2030. This boom was most recently indicated by Amazon’s plan to grow its 2026 capex by about 50% year over year to $200 billion to support AI demand. Meta and Alphabet announced that their capex could approximately double to about $135 billion and $180 billion, respectively, in 2026.

 

Such AI-related spending is lifting the players that supply the ecosystem, including chipmakers, data center developers and tech firms. In the near term, demand is outstripping the supply of new data center capacity, with corresponding investments materially boosting growth in the broader US economy. A key question on investors’ minds is whether AI adoption and monetization will accelerate enough to turn this early investment‑led economic boost into lasting productivity and financial returns.

Private Markets

Unlocking the next stage of private credit’s growth

 

Private equity and, more recently, private credit have transformed investor portfolios and global financial markets. The asset classes have attracted more investors, while the valuations of private companies have grown exponentially. Further growth hinges on efforts to improve transparency for investors and provide standardized performance benchmarks to ensure that private market allocations meet long-term objectives and risk budgets.

 

This article is part of the first volume of our new series from the Look Forward Council, “Partner Perspectives: Unlocking Potential Ahead.” This volume features articles from S&P Global and Vanguard.

In case you missed it

  • Ecuador's heavy Napo crude differential fell almost 82% intraday to the widest recorded discount on Feb. 6, based on public tender results. Traders attributed the move to increased competition from Venezuelan and Canadian barrels.
  • The UK’s digital entertainment market remained strong in 2025, according to S&P Global Market Intelligence Kagan’s recent Consumer Insights survey. The use of free and subscription-based online video services expanded, as well as online music and gaming services.
  • Indonesia's plan to redefine cobalt as an independent mineral and impose royalties on the metal could raise costs for miners and impede the nation's progress as a major producer of the battery mineral, industry participants told Platts, part of S&P Global Energy.

Upcoming events