Low-carbon ammonia markets firm ahead of EU carbon border rules

The global low-carbon ammonia market strengthened significantly from October to November. Conventional ammonia supply constraints tightened the market and supported prices, while exporters began readying low-carbon cargoes to Europe ahead of the Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism’s implementation.

Carbon capture-enabled blue ammonia prices rose 6%-8% month over month across major regions in November, with values in Northwest Europe — the highest-priced delivery region — up $44 per metric ton to average $739/t. These gains built on October's already elevated levels. US Gulf Coast prices narrowed their discount to European assessments, up $50/t at $686/t, while Far East Asia prices rose $41/t to $531/t. Platts blue ammonia price assessments are based on the conventional ammonia market price plus a premium reflecting the costs of carbon capture and storage.

Tariff Differentials Matter: Modest Dip in US Imports in November

US seaborne imports fell 3.2% year over year in November, helped by improving shipments of auto parts as tariffs in that sector have become routine. There’s also been a slower seasonal downturn compared with October.

Differential tariff rates have made a big difference to the performance of deliveries by origin. Shipments from mainland China and Hong Kong fell by 17.2% year over year in October, but this deceleration may slow after the cut in International Emergency Economic Powers Act rates linked to fentanyl. Shipments from Southeast Asia surged 21.9% year over year in November, a result of tactical reshoring for products not bought from mainland China. India’s shipments fell 18.7% year over year in November, reflecting the elevated duty rate that the country continues to face due to its oil imports from Russia.

Imports from the EU, European Free Trade Association and UK improved by 10.8% year over year in November from 4.8% in October, thanks to lower tariff rates of 15% for the EU and 10% for the UK.