Daily Update — August 05, 2026
El Niño May Disrupt Food Supplies; Mixed Outlook for Chemicals; and India Energy Demand Rises
Today is Wednesday, August 5, 2026, and here’s your curated selection of Essential Intelligence on global markets from S&P Global. Subscribe to be notified of each new Daily Update.
Agribusiness
El Niño may disrupt global food supplies as farm output falls
The ongoing El Niño weather phenomenon may disrupt food supplies in 2026-27, causing global farm output to fall. El Niño developed in early July and may intensify during October-December, persisting until April 2027, according to the World Meteorological Organization and the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.
"A strong late-2026 to early-2027 event would increase weather-driven volatility, with the largest downside risks concentrated in Brazil, Australia, India and Southeast Asia, while Argentina is the clearest potential beneficiary from improved rainfall," S&P Global Energy CERA said in a report. These regions are key producers and exporters of corn, soybeans and wheat. El Niño conditions are forecast to strengthen into a strong event, increasing the chances of drought and heavy rainfall.
Chemicals
Listen: Can chemical producers turn Middle East volatility into an advantage?
In this episode of the “Chemical Week Podcast,” S&P Global Ratings analysts Paul Kurias and Danny Krauss joined host Vincent Valk to discuss the mixed 2026 outlook for the chemicals sector.
US producers may gain near-term benefits from Middle East-related supply disruptions and relative cost advantages, but those same geopolitical pressures could create longer-term risks through inflation, weaker demand and market stress. At the same time, growth tied to AI, data centers and advanced materials is a bright spot for specialty chemical producers. Still, the industry remains exposed to high interest rates and weak housing and automotive demand.
Energy Expansion
India's power and renewables market: Q2 brings record demand, rising curtailment
From April to June, India's power sector was shaped by robust electricity demand growth and rapid renewable energy expansion. El Niño-driven heat waves boosted power consumption 13.2% year over year, according to Central Electricity Authority data, while renewable capacity additions reached 13.25 gigawatts.
Although higher renewable generation helped meet rising demand, continued curtailment highlighted ongoing challenges in grid integration, transmission infrastructure and system flexibility, S&P Global CERA reported. Meanwhile, coal-fired generation increased 8.4% year over year to 361 terawatt-hours in the April-June period, supporting system reliability during peak demand and underscoring the role of conventional power in maintaining grid stability amid the energy transition.
In case you missed it
- Plastic prevented from reaching the ocean is gaining traction as a route into food-grade recycled polymer applications.
- Georgia's Kulevi Oil Refinery began diversifying away from Russian crude, securing supplies from Kazakhstan and Libya.
- Leveraged exchange-traded funds are becoming a meaningful source of securities lending revenue as demand builds around high-volatility market themes.
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