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Market Dynamics

Climate Change and The Impact on Crop Supply- Demand

According to the U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), 2021 was the sixth hottest year in recorded history. However, this does not begin the story.

The two previous years (2020 and 2019) rank as the two hottest years in recorded history. In fact, the years 2013-2021 all rank among the 10 hottest years in the recorded history of the planet. As if this was not enough, one must go back 45 years, to 1977, to find a year when the planet was below the mean of recorded temperatures. Faced with this data, it is hard to deny the planet is getting warmer and has been doing so for many years.

Presumably, this has grave implications for many aspects of life—not the least is global food production. Rising temperatures threaten the ability to grow sufficient food as the environment in which they are grown transforms beyond optimal conditions.

Global Land and Ocean Temperature Anomalies

The Price of Rice: A Beacon of Stability in Agricultural Markets

In recent years, rice has emerged as an agricultural commodity with a reputation for relatively stable prices, when prices of most other agricultural products have been anything but.

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Grains And Oilseeds Under Strain

Market pressures on the grains and oilseeds markets include sanctions and export restrictions on fertilizers, a drop in production and supply of grains and oils, and a disruption to future harvests impacting cover crops and extending yields.

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Agricultural Market Volatility to Continue Into 2023, May Intensify: Cobank Economist

Farmers and consumers across the globe may have to contend with a volatile market well into 2023 as the upside risks to the price of agricultural commodities and inputs loom, Kenneth Scott Zuckerberg, lead analyst and senior economist with CoBank's Knowledge Exchange division, said in an interview with S&P Global Commodities Insights.

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Shipping

USDA Revises Down EU 2022 Rice Output Amid Widespread Drought

The US Department of Agriculture has projected that 2022 EU milled rice output will dip by 21% on year to 1.35 million mt in its latest Grain and Feed update released July 29.

In addition to the on-year drop, it also represents a 7.7% decline from its previous forecast. While the harvested area forecast was maintained at 357,000 hectares – down by 11% on year – both the average field yield and milling rate were revised down from previous forecasts. The average field yield was projected at 5.9 mt/ha, down by 9.8% on year and by 7.4% from the previous forecast.

The drop in the USDA's forecasts comes amid droughts across much of Western Europe. The USDA specifically points to "low irrigation water availability in Spain (Guadalquivir River basin) and, to a lesser extent, in Greece and Portugal."

According to the latest estimate from the Ministry of Agriculture, Fisheries and Food, Spain 2022 planted area was projected at 52,600 hectares – down by 39% on year and by 48% from 2020's area.

EU Milled Rice Output

Triple-Dip La Nina May Further Heighten Supply Issues in Agriculture Markets

The ongoing La Nina climate phenomenon may extend into its third year in a rare event to become what is called a triple-dip La Nina. This is likely to extend the uncertainty currently prevailing across agriculture markets as supply estimates for various food commodities faltered this year, largely driven by weather adversities in top producing countries.

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The Russia-Ukraine War Is Reshaping The Fertilizer Industry

The effects of the Russia-Ukraine war may reverberate through the global fertilizer industry for years to come. Post-COVID supply-chain disruptions had already pushed fertilizer prices to cyclical highs in 2021.

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Small Players Lead Sunflower Oil Trade in War-Struck Ukraine, says DeltaWilmar Trader

Small-time operators in Ukraine are combining resources and exporting sunflower oil to nearby countries from little-known river ports, transacting mostly in cash as the war stretches to its sixth month, Dinesh Kumar, a vegetable oil trader at DeltaWilmar told S&P Global Commodity Insights.

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The Platts Market Data - Agriculture dataset provides access to the full breadth and depth of our agriculture market data, including benchmarks and contract price assessments. The assessments provide a basis for trade across commodities and the world and allows you a more connected view of the influences on the price of sugar, grains, oilseeds, vegetable oils, animal feed & protein and biofuels.

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Corn

Corn Bulk Ship Leaves Chornomorsk Port For South Korea; Concerns Over Quality

MV Ocean Lion has sailed from Ukraine's port of Chornomorsk early Aug. 9 destined for South Korea, bringing the total to 12 ships to leave Ukraine since Turkey and the UN brokered a deal to resume grains shipment via a humanitarian maritime corridor out of the Black Sea.

The bulk ship -- the largest to have left the Black Sea since the suspension -- is loaded with 65,000 mt of feed-grade corn destined for Incheon, South Korea, according to market sources. The corn was sold by Viterra to KFA Incheon before Russia's invasion of Ukraine, and the ship had been stranded at the port due to Russia's naval blockade and Ukraine's subsequent defensive mining of the waters, sources added.

Another ship, MV Rahmi Yagci, also left Chornomorsk carrying 5,300 mt of sunflower destined for Istanbul.

More than 370,000 mt of agricultural commodities had been shipped out of Ukraine since Aug. 1, according to data by S&P Global Commodity Insights.

USDA Further Cuts U.S. Corn Production, Yield Estimates for MY 2022-23

The U.S. Department of Agriculture lowered its U.S. corn production estimate for the marketing year 2022-23 (September-August) to 13.94 billion bushels, down 415 million bushels from its previous estimate in August, it said in the World Agriculture Supply and Demand Estimates report Sept. 12.

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Indonesia To Expand Corn, Sorghum Cultivation By 2024 To Bolster Feed Grain Security

Indonesia's plan to increase sorghum and corn cultivation over the next two years was expected to increase feed grain availability for domestic livestock farming, but the impact on prices would hinge on the extent on the increase and the yield, market sources said Aug. 8.

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On Aug. 1 the bulk carrier Razoni, flying under the flag of Sierra Leone, departed Ukraine’s Port of Odesa carrying a grain shipment. According to the Ukrainian government, the Razoni was the first such ship to leave the country under a deal between Russia and Ukraine, brokered by Turkey and the U.N., to ease global food prices. Despite the agreement, volatility remains high for agricultural markets.

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Wheat

La Nina Adds Uncertainty to Already Troubled Agriculture Market

The agriculture markets have been packed with headline-grabbing events, with extreme price volatility for all major grains and oil seeds in the last two years.

Infographic: La Nina adds uncertainty to already troubled agriculture market

Ukraine's Wheat Exports Slump 53% On Year To 325,000 Mt in MY 2022-23

Ukraine exported about 325,000 mt of wheat in the marketing year 2022-23 (July-June) as of July 29, down 53.2% on the year, the Ministry of Agriculture said in an update July 31. The country's wheat exports are anticipated to decline sharply in the current marketing year as the continued war with Russia has destroyed port logistics, traders said.

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Canadian Wheat Takes On Bigger Role In Combating Food Security Issues Amid Ukraine War

Uncertainty about where the world will get its wheat, as the Ukraine war persists, opens the door for Canada to take on a larger role in ensuring global food security. The country's wheat exports are anticipated to decline sharply in the current marketing year as the continued war with Russia has destroyed port logistics, traders said.

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Ukraine Sends Out First Ship Since Invasion From Odessa Port Under Deal: Minister

Ukraine has sent out a ship from the Odessa port Aug. 1 — the first in five months since the Russian invasion Feb. 24 — under a safe passage agreement, a Ukrainian minister said.

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S&P Global Commodity Insights looks at how geopolitics and supply chain issues are impacting markets for grains, oilseeds and more.

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Global Feed Demand 2023

2022 has brought about a highly volatile environment across commodities markets. Inflation, which began during the pandemic and was exacerbated by the Russian invasion of Ukraine, has sent agriculture markets soaring.

The market price of hogs, cattle, and poultry have all increased at a rate near or higher than their respective input costs. This has led to strong margins in the US and in most of the world. However, declining, and sometimes negative, margins are beginning to weigh on the livestock industry. Looking towards 2023, we expect a confluence of factors to reduce global livestock numbers. This is clear when examining each of the major livestock sectors.

Paul Hughes is Chief Agricultural Economist & Director of Research, Agribusiness at S&P Global Commodity Insights.

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