U.S. coal producers are already in a tough spot, but the hints power generators dropped on second-quarter earnings calls suggest they may soon be announcing plans to retire even more of the nation's aging coal fleet.
Demand for coal has been decimated by the COVID-19 pandemic, with production and employment in the sector falling to new lows as the lower demand weighs further on a sector already in secular decline. In recent weeks, multiple power generators made comments about the future of their generation fleets suggesting more coal plant retirements loom on the horizon.
Energy transition refers to the global energy sector’s shift from fossil-based systems of energy production and consumption — including oil, natural gas and coal — to renewable energy sources like wind and solar, as well as lithium-ion batteries.Read More about Energy Transition
Exports & Imports
U.S. coal exports to the top four destinations experienced double-digit drops in shipments in the second quarter of 2020 compared to the first quarter of the year. The drop is one indication of how the international market has contracted in response to the coronavirus pandemic.
Exports in the second quarter totaled 13.5 million tonnes, a 26.1% decline from 18.3 million tonnes shipped in the previous quarter and a 41.7% drop from 23.2 million tonnes transported in the year-ago period, according to data compiled by S&P Global Market Intelligence. Of the top 20 export destinations, nine saw double-digit percentage declines quarter over quarter and 15 underwent similar drops in coal shipments year over year.
Top U.S. Coal Ports Post Double-Digit Volume Declines in Q2'20 on COVID-19 Impact
U.S. coal exports took a hit in the second quarter as the coronavirus pandemic crashed global demand and prices, with almost all of the top coal-exporting ports clocking double-digit drops in shipments.
Total U.S. coal exports for the three-month period plunged 41.7% to 13.5 million tonnes from 23.2 Mt year over year, according to data compiled by S&P Global Market Intelligence.
Basin Coal Mines
U.S. coal production and employment nosedived in the second quarter, and much of the lost tonnage would have come from the Powder River Basin that spans southeastern Montana and northeastern Wyoming.
The region is the largest producer of coal in the nation and heavily relies on demand from domestic power generators, which have reduced coal consumption as the COVID-19 pandemic squeezes electricity demand. Coal production from the region fell 21.5% quarter to quarter and was down 15.4% for the 12 months ended in the second quarter as the economic fallout from the virus added to a secular decline in demand for thermal coal.
Top 25 Illinois Basin Coal Mines Dropped Output 20% in 12 Months Ended June 30
Coal production from the Illinois Basin's top mines decreased 20.0% for the 12 months ended June 30 as the COVID-19 pandemic added pressure to producers already facing a long-term decline in domestic markets as well as weak export markets.
The top 25 coal mines by production volume in the Illinois Basin produced an aggregate 72.1 million tons in the 12 months that ended with the second quarter, decreasing year over year from 90.2 million tons.
Appalachian Coal Mines
As the coronavirus pandemic crushed demand for coal throughout the U.S. and around the world, output from some of the top coal mines in the Northern Appalachian region in the eastern U.S. saw precipitous declines.
The top 25 coal mines in the region by production volume produced 14.0 million tons in the second quarter of 2020, according to an S&P Global Market Intelligence analysis of industry-reported data collected by the U.S. government. Output from these mines during the quarter fell 27.0% from 19.1 million tons produced in the previous quarter, when reports of novel coronavirus infections were beginning to trickle into the public domain, and dropped 45.8% from 25.7 million tons produced during the same period in 2019.
Top Central Appalachian Mines Reel Back Output 25% in Q2'20
Production from the top 25 coal mines in the Central Appalachian region of the U.S. slipped during the second quarter as some of the largest operators lowered output in light of the coronavirus pandemic. The region includes mines in West Virginia and portions of eastern Kentucky and eastern Tennessee.
The top 25 mines in the region produced 5.5 million tons of coal in the second quarter, decreasing 24.7% quarter over quarter and 26.2% year over year, according to federal mining industry data analyzed by S&P Global Market Intelligence.
South Africa's domestic and export coal industry is tentatively bullish about a post-coronavirus recovery after weathering the initial supply disruptions and recently experiencing an increase in export demand.
Speaking at the 2020 Coal Industry Day Online Edition on Aug. 20, panelists discussed the current state of coal production in South Africa, developments in key export markets as well as the future of coal in the global energy mix.
Investors applaud China's plan to ban clean coal from green bond financing
China's proposal to stop recognizing clean coal as projects qualified for green bonds could attract more interest from foreign investors, as the policy change brings domestic standards closer to the more stringent international definition of green projects.Read the Full Article
Poland is targeting reducing coal's share of electricity generation from around 75% today to between 37.5%-56% in 2030 and to 11%-28% in 2040, the Ministry of Climate said Sept. 8. The share of hard coal and lignite in power generation will depend on the evolution of CO2 prices in the next decade, the ministry said. Higher allowance prices would lead to deeper cuts in coal generation. The reduction of hard coal and lignite's share in electricity production will be replaced by capital investments totaling Zloty 280 billion ($74.3 billion) by 2040 to build the country's first offshore wind and nuclear plants.
Enel lines up three Italian coal closures for early 2021
Italy's largest power generator Enel intends to close three coal units early next year as part of its full exit from coal, including one unit at Italy's largest coal plant, Brindisi, Enel Italia CEO Carlo Tamburi told a parliamentary commission Sept. 9. Enel, along with the country's three other coal plant operators, has committed to close all of its coal-fired capacity by 2025 as part of the country's National Energy and Climate Plan.Read the Full Article