Russia's daily average crude and condensate output rose by 2.4% on year to 10.52 million b/d in 2021, as OPEC+ increased quotas in line with recovering demand as pandemic lockdown measures eased globally.
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OPEC+ crude quotas were the key driver of Russian production volumes in 2021. Analysts see quotas continuing to be the most influential factor affecting output in 2022. They forecast spare capacity and drilling programs, releases of strategic petroleum reserves, the coronavirus pandemic's impact on demand, and potential new western sanctions on Russian energy producers as other factors likely to affect production.
OPEC+ is next due to meet to discuss market conditions and output quotas on Jan. 4.
In 2021, Russian production totaled 524 million mt, according to data released by the Central Dispatching Unit of the Energy Ministry on Jan. 2. This was up on output of 512.78 million mt, equivalent to around 10.27 million b/d, in 2020, the CDU said previously.
Russia expects oil production to continue to grow in 2022 and reach pre-pandemic volumes by May. Officials forecast overall production at between 540-550 million mt, or 10.84-11.05 million b/d, in 2022.
Outside Russia, OPEC and the International Energy Agency also forecast Russian oil production growth in 2022. OPEC estimates it will average 11.78 million b/d, and the IEA 11.66 million b/d next year.
The OPEC+ agreement does not cover condensate production. The Russian government does not provide breakdowns of crude and condensate output, but condensate usually accounts for around 8% of overall production.
2021 crude and condensate production included December output of 46.11 million mt, equivalent to 10.9 mil b/d, according to the CDU data. Daily average volumes were flat on November 2021, as Russian oil producers' spare capacity declined, following steady increases to output quotas in 2021.
Output was up 8.4% on December 2020 volumes of 42.54 million mt, or 10.06 million b/d.
Russia's December crude quota under the OPEC+ agreement was 10.018 million b/d, up from 9.914 million b/d in November.
Russia's overall oil exports totaled 214.40 million mt in 2021, equivalent to 4.3 million b/d. Daily average deliveries were down 2% on shipments of 4.39 million b/d in 2020.
This included December exports of 19.24 million mt, or 4.55 million b/d. Daily average deliveries were up 1.3% on month, and 13% on year.
Russia's domestic deliveries totaled 286.39 million mt, or 5.75 million b/d in 2021. This was up 5% on daily shipments of 5.47 million b/d in 2020.
This included deliveries of 25.15 million mt, or 5.95 million b/d in December. This was up 1% on November 2021, and 8% on year.
Prices for Russia's key Urals crude grade rose significantly in 2021 as demand recovered. S&P Global Platts assessed Urals CIF Rotterdam at $75.53/b Dec. 31, up 54% from $48.92 on Jan. 1.
Russian deputy prime minister and key OPEC+ negotiator Alexander Novak said Dec. 24 that he expects prices to be stable at around $75/b in 2022.
Current prices are well above the conservative level included in Russia's state budget for 2022 of $44.20/b.