Copper Discoveries Lag as Industry Focuses on Expansion Over Addition

Expansion outweighs addition as exploration challenges arise

The rate and size of new major copper discoveries remain subdued compared to previous decades. Segmenting the data by decade underscores a stark generational decline: Total copper discovered post-2000 remains lower than the total volume discovered during the 1990s alone. Copper has become increasingly strategic to the global economy, but major discoveries have failed to keep pace.

Shift in Industry Strategy and Geological Hurdles

The explanation lies in industry strategy and geology.

Since the early 2000s, miners have increasingly shifted exploration spending toward existing operations, where infrastructure, permitting pathways and geological understanding reduce risk and shorten development timelines. In 2025, minesite programs accounted for 43% of global copper exploration budgets, compared with 25% for grassroots exploration. Despite rising copper exploration spending since 2020, this shift has limited the rate of new major discoveries. More than 60% of the annual increase in discovered copper volume came from deposits associated with existing mining complexes, rather than newly identified systems. While this strategy creates near-term value, it risks weakening the long-term project pipeline.

The challenge extends beyond exploration strategy. Many accessible deposits have already been found, leaving explorers to target deeper and more complex systems that often require significant infrastructure or permitting efforts. Average copper drilling depth has increased by nearly 50% since 2010 to about 600 meters, while ore grades have generally declined. Prolonged and complex permitting processes contribute to the protracted mine lead times, with the copper discovery-to-production timeline averaging 17.5 years in our latest study. These costlier, deeper drilling programs have resulted in less activity per dollar than two decades ago, as inflation further erodes spending power.

The industry's challenge is twofold: finding more copper and doing so in increasingly expensive and technically demanding environments.

New frontiers in searching for the next tier 1 deposits

The geographic distribution of major discoveries remains similar to the 2025 findings. Latin America remains the dominant discovery region, accounting for 773 million mt of contained copper (55% of the total). The region hosts the two largest discoveries — Collahuasi and Los Bronces Underground (Los Sulfatos) — both located in Chile, the top country for global exploration and mined copper production. Asia-Pacific ranks second with 295 million mt (21% share), with more than two-thirds of this volume found in minesite assets, including the largest three: Qulong in China, Grasberg (Kucing Liar) in Indonesia and Oyu Tolgoi (Hugo Dummett) in Mongolia. The US-Canada region — home to Pebble in Alaska and Resolution in Arizona — is third with 139 million mt (10% share).

Emerging Jurisdictions for Exploration

While established copper districts continue to attract exploration spending, several jurisdictions are emerging as important frontiers for potential discoveries.

Argentina has become a notable example: Grassroots budgets to Argentina more than tripled to $66 million in 2025 (up from $18 million in 2024), driven by junior explorer NGEx Minerals Ltd. at its Lunahuasi project. Explorers continue to advance projects in the country's Vicuña district, home to major discoveries such as Filo del Sol (2000) and Josemaria (2003). Argentina's significant drilling ratio — the fraction of drillholes with significant results over the total number of drillholes — for copper was 33% between January 2021 and July 2026, outperforming some mature jurisdictions such as Australia (20%) and the US (27%). The adoption of pro-market policy frameworks has also strengthened Argentina's attractiveness as a destination for long-horizon exploration programs.

Across Africa, grassroots activity is expanding in Zambia and Botswana, supported by major companies and private entities, some of which are in partnership or joint ventures with juniors. Rio Tinto Group is the largest grassroots copper explorer in Zambia, while BHP Group Ltd. committed $25 million in a multiyear earn-in with Cobre Ltd., targeting the Kitlanya East project in Botswana's Kalahari Copper Belt. In Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC), Ivanhoe Mines Ltd.'s Western Foreland deposits remain the only major discovery since 2023. Western Foreland is now a late-stage asset, and no extensive grassroots drilling activity and budgeting has been reported and allocated to the country since. High sovereign risk and complex permitting regulations hamper early-stage juniors, yet DRC's potential remains attractive due to exceptionally high copper grades, like in Kamoa-Kakula.

Elsewhere, government-backed and major corporate initiatives are broadening the geographic search for copper, pulling focus toward emerging frontiers such as Kazakhstan, Norway, Saudi Arabia, Serbia and Sweden. In Saudi Arabia, the state-backed Saudi Arabian Mining Co. (Maaden) is rapidly accelerating its quest for new deposits under the Vision 2030 economic diversification mandate. Building on its extensive exploration of the hard-rock Arabian Shield — bolstered by an active joint venture with Ivanhoe Electric Inc. — Ma'aden is pioneering a new frontier by expanding into the Arabian Platform via a landmark joint venture with Saudi Arabian Oil Co. (Aramco). This partnership leverages the state-owned oil giant's 90 years of proprietary seismic and subsurface data, providing an unprecedented strategic advantage to identify deeply concealed, sediment-hosted copper targets that traditional exploration would miss.

Majors', governments' strategies to shape copper pipeline future

The supply challenge is becoming increasingly urgent. S&P Global Energy's latest copper outlook forecasts concentrate market deficits in 2026-27, recovering briefly before extending through much of the 2030s, highlighting the need for greenfield developments and brownfield expansions.

Yet the industry's project pipeline remains constrained. No major copper deposit with defined reserves and resources that meets our threshold was discovered in 2025, while 165 out of the 263 major discoveries in our list have yet to enter production. Of these, 135 have yet to complete feasibility studies, and only 17 have advanced to construction or preproduction. It is important to note that while recent major discoveries are limited, reserves and resources tend to grow over time, as explorers conduct more drilling and further studies.

Balancing Near-Term and Long-Term Goals

The broader reality is that discovery alone is not enough. Unlocking new supply requires projects to advance efficiently through permitting, financing, infrastructure development, and construction, demanding alignment between governments, investors and industry. The influence of major mining companies and governments is already evident in current exploration trends and will remain critical in shaping the future pipeline. Their choices on capital allocation, permitting frameworks, infrastructure development, and exploration incentives will influence where new copper districts emerge and how quickly discoveries can advance toward production.

As copper demand rises, the industry must balance the near-term benefits of brownfield expansion with long-term pipeline replenishment through new discoveries. Ultimately, the future of copper supply will be shaped not only by geology, but by strategic decisions on investment, policy and project development. The discoveries needed to support an increasingly electrified world may exist, but their value will be realized only if they can be brought into production in time to meet growing demand.

This article was published by S&P Global Market Intelligence and not by S&P Global Ratings, which is a separately managed division of S&P Global.

How does S&P Capital IQ Pro metals & mining intelligence inform exploration strategy?

The copper discovery data and analysis in S&P Capital IQ Pro provides the foundational analysis for companies to benchmark performance, identify opportunities, and navigate the evolving exploration landscape. The dataset underpinning the findings in this article allows stakeholders to track discovery rates by region and decade, assess the shift from grassroots to minesite exploration, and understand the timelines from discovery to production. Explorers and investors can make strategic decisions on capital allocation, evaluate the potential of emerging frontiers, and address the long-term challenge of replenishing the project pipeline.

Key Questions on the Future of Copper Supply

Which regions are leading in copper discoveries?

Latin America is the dominant region for major copper discoveries made between 1990 and 2025, accounting for 773 million metric tons, or 55% of the total contained copper identified. The Asia-Pacific region ranks second with a 21% share, followed by the US-Canada region with a 10% share.

What are the main challenges in discovering new copper deposits?

The primary challenges include an industrywide strategic shift toward expanding existing mines rather than riskier grassroots exploration, which limits the rate of new discoveries. Geologically, many easily accessible deposits have been found, forcing explorers to target deeper, more complex systems that are costlier to drill. Additionally, prolonged and complicated permitting processes extend project lead times, which average 17.5 years from discovery to production.

Which emerging countries show potential for new copper discoveries?

Several emerging frontiers are attracting exploration focus, including Argentina, which has seen its grassroots budget tripled and has a high drilling success rate. In Africa, Zambia and Botswana are seeing increased activity from major companies, while the Democratic Republic of Congo remains attractive for its high-grade deposits. Government and corporate initiatives are also driving exploration in countries like Saudi Arabia, Kazakhstan, and Serbia.

What role will major companies and governments play in the copper pipeline?

Major mining companies and governments will be critical in shaping the future copper supply pipeline. Their strategic decisions on capital allocation will determine whether investment prioritizes near-term brownfield expansions or long-term grassroots discoveries. Furthermore, government policies on permitting, infrastructure development, and exploration incentives will directly influence where new copper districts can emerge and how quickly new discoveries can be advanced to production.

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