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Summary
The 2026 midterm elections are shaping up to be the most expensive non-presidential election cycle in US history - and for local broadcast TV, that means a record-breaking revenue opportunity.
In this webinar, Kagan Research analysts from S&P Global Market Intelligence unpack the data behind the boom: Local TV political ad revenue is forecast to exceed $4 billion in 2026, representing 16.3% of total broadcast revenue for the year. But the story isn't just about local TV’s windfall. Connected TV is surging, digital is eating into broadcast's share, and the choices stations make today will determine their competitive position in future cycles.
Please join us for a clear-eyed unbiased look at where political dollars are going - and what it means for your business.
Key Talking Points:
Record-Breaking 2026 Midterms: Local TV political ad revenue is projected to reach $4.02 billion in 2026 (15% increase from 2022), representing 16.3% of total broadcast revenue, within a historic $10+ billion total political advertising cycle.
Connected TV Surge: CTV emerges as the fastest-growing segment with projected spending of $2.7 billion in 2026—a 122% jump from 2022—accounting for over 25% of total political ad spend for the first time.
Broadcast TV Maintains Dominance: Traditional broadcast television retains the largest single channel share at approximately 49% of total political spend (~$5.3 billion), despite increasing digital competition.
Strategic Inflection Point: While 2026 offers significant revenue opportunities, stations face long-term challenges with projected 1.48% CAGR for TV ad revenue (2025-2030), creating urgency to leverage political windfalls for building digital and streaming capabilities.
Speakers
S&P Global Market Intelligence
Mike Reynolds
Senior Reporter, TMT
Mike Reynolds is a Senior Reporter with S&P Global Market Intelligence, based in Mamaroneck, NY. He covers Sports, Advertising, Broadcast and TV Networks, as part of the Global Media team in the Technology, Media and Telecommunication (TMT) research division.
A seasoned journalist and editor, Mr. Reynolds has more than 30 years of experience tracking the financial, distribution, technological, creative and marketing components of the broadcast, cable, streaming, sports and advertising industries. Over the course, Mr. Reynolds has interviewed myriad leading executives in those sectors, served as a panelist and moderator for industry conferences, and provided commentary for national and business outlets. He also hosts and contributes to S&P Global’s MediaTalk podcast.
Prior to joining S&P Global in 2015, Mr. Reynolds worked for a number of print and online publications, including Multichannel News and Inside Media.
S&P Global Market Intelligence
Justin Nielson
Research Director, Head of Kagan Research
Justin Nielson is a Research Director and Head of S&P Global Market Intelligence Kagan, covering the broadcast, networks, sports, digital audio, and streaming video sectors. Mr. Nielson leads a team of 30+ research analysts creating qualitative analysis, quantitative forecast models, event driven articles and trend reports published on the CapIQ Pro platform.
His 17+ years of industry experience and knowledge have made Mr. Nielson a frequently quoted analyst in numerous trade publications as well as such national press as The New York Times, Wall Street Journal, Forbes, CNBC, and Bloomberg. He has been a panelist, presenter, and moderator for industry conferences and investor summits such as the National Association of Broadcasters Show, Wells Fargo Media & Telecom Summit, RadioInk Forecast and the Kagan Media Summit. In addition, Mr. Nielson has hosted and spoken on S&P webinars and podcasts including Next in Tech and MediaTalk.
Prior to Kagan, Mr. Nielson worked as a Financial Advisor at Merrill Lynch and an Investment Representative at Edward Jones in Carlsbad, CA. Mr. Nielson holds a Bachelor of Science (B.S.) degree with a major in Global Business from Arizona State University - W. P. Carey School of Business and a Master of Science (M.S.) in Analytics degree at Georgia Tech along with multiple professional certificates in the fields of data science and analytics.
S&P Global Market Intelligence
Peter Leitzinger
Analyst, equity research/fixed income
Peter Leitzinger is a research analyst in the Kagan media research group within S&P Global Market Intelligence, covering the broadcast TV and radio, broadcast technology and streaming audio and video sectors. He is a contributor to the Broadcast Investor feature type on the S&P CapIQ Pro platform, creating qualitative analysis, quantitative forecast models, event-driven articles and trend analysis and reports.
With more than 11 years of industry experience, Peter has been a panelist at industry conferences such as the National Association of Broadcasters Show and spoken on webinars and podcasts such as S&P’s MediaTalk. He provides his expertise on numerous articles and reports, including contributions to the Economics of Broadcast TV Retransmission Revenue, the Economics of Streaming Audio (formerly Internet Music and Radio), TV political ad revenue projections and streaming audio projections.
Before joining S&P Global Market Intelligence, Peter worked as a senior analyst at a San Francisco insurance brokerage focused on the private equity sector. He holds a Bachelor of Science in business administration from the San Francisco State University College of Business.
Silver Oak Political
Steve Passwaiter
President
Steve Passwaiter is President of Silver Oak Political, a Washington, DC political advisory firm assisting organizations interested in introducing services or improving their position in the political ad sector. Steve previously served as VP, Growth and Strategy and Senior Adviser to CMAG at both Vivvix and Kantar Media where he successfully nurtured bipartisan relationships across the political world. He led Kantar/CMAG, the political intelligence unit of Kantar Media, from 2016-21, guiding it to record revenues while also being the lead for Kantar Media's Media Unit from 2020-2023. Steve is well known as a spokesperson on political ad strategies and is often quoted on a number of media outlets. Prior to joining Kantar/CMAG, Steve was Founder and CEO of SLP Media Strategies, which supplied outsourced business development services. He is also a former Board Adviser for Sportsdigita, a Minneapolis-based interactive sports agency that specializes in digital sponsorship, ticketing and fan engagement products for sports teams. Steve also served as Vice President of Business Development for BIA/Kelsey following his experience in local television sales management in Cleveland and Washington, DC. Steve is a proud alum of John Carroll University in Cleveland, OH and a long-suffering Cleveland Guardians fan.
ING
Samantha Osborne
Vice President of Political Sales
Osborne Reynolds brings more than 17 years of experience in political strategy and advertising, communication, and media sales to her new role at Nexstar.
She served most recently as Vice President, Political, Advocacy and Automation for the E.W. Scripps Company (Scripps), where she oversaw political and national sales for the company’s local media businesses and managed Scripps’ Washington D.C., sales office.
She also was responsible for the company’s political sales strategy and marketing plan and launched the connected TV political sales team. Ms. Osborne Reynolds joined Scripps in 2019 as Senior Director of National Sales.
Questions?
Please contact us if you need more information or have trouble accessing the webinar.