The Essential Podcast, Episode 11 : A View to the Future - China Beyond the Pandemic

About this Episode

Priscilla Luk, Managing Director, Head of Global Research & Design, Asia Pacific at S&P Dow Jones Indices, joins The Essential Podcast to discuss the early signs of an economic recovery in China, the changing relationship between China and emerging markets, and the challenges for deleveraging the Chinese economy during the recovery.

The Essential Podcast from S&P Global is dedicated to sharing essential intelligence with those working in and affected by financial markets. Host Nathan Hunt focuses on those issues of immediate importance to global financial markets – macroeconomic trends, the credit cycle, climate risk, energy transition, and global trade – in interviews with subject matter experts from around the world.

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Show Notes

Read the research discussed in this episode:

• As the coronavirus has spread across continents, countries around the world are experiencing a slowdown in economic activity and volatility in the financial markets. The S&P Pan Asia BMI and S&P 500® lost 20.5% and 20.0%, respectively, in the first quarter of 2020. During the same period, the S&P China A Domestic BMI and S&P China 500 (which seeks to track the top 500 domestic and offshore listed Chinese companies) dropped 9.5% and 10.3%, respectively, which was only half of the loss suffered by the U.S. and Pan Asian markets. Read Priscilla's April 2020 article on how the Chinese equity market responded to the domestic and global coronavirus outbreak.

• U.S. trade and investment policies may slow technology transfer unless China does more to protect intellectual property, widen market access for foreign firms, and level the playing field with domestic champions. The trade balance is of second-order importance. If a resolution is not found, the long-term effects on China's macro-credit prospects are underestimated. Slower tech transfer means slower potential growth. China might resort to excessive stimulus and low quality, credit-intensive growth in a bid to sustain rapid catch-up. Read the 2018 research report "A Great New Game—China, the U.S. and Technology" by S&P Global's China Senior Analyst Group, of which Priscilla is a member of.

• With knowledgeable industry contributors, S&P Dow Jones Indices' Indexology Blog delivers more than fundamentals on how indices are conceived, constructed, and used in the marketplace. Indexology features posts, reports, performance, and discussions from thought leaders across S&P DJI as well as guest posts from renowned, subject matter professionals. As a forum for expressing various views and thoughts on indexing, Indexology provides insightful research and a look at market, political, and economic events through the lens of S&P DJI's index data.

The Essential Podcast is edited and produced by Molly Mintz.