Daily Update — September 30, 2026
US Midterm Scenarios; Tariff Reduction Framework; and Data Center Cyber Risk Increases
Today is Wednesday, September 30, 2026, and here’s your curated selection of Essential Intelligence on global markets from S&P Global. Subscribe to be notified of each new Daily Update.
Economy
Listen: US Midterm Elections: Scenarios, Stakes and Significance
The 2026 US midterm elections will determine who controls Congress, influence policymaking at the federal and state levels, and help set the political landscape ahead of the 2028 presidential race. In this episode of “The Decisive” podcast, host Kristen Hallam spoke with John Raines, head of North America, Economics and Country Risk, at S&P Global Market Intelligence, about how scenario-based analysis can provide a more useful view of the elections than headline polling alone. They examined the forces affecting key congressional and gubernatorial races, including the cost of living, energy prices, trade policy, and growing debate over AI and data centers.
They also explored potential outcomes for the House and Senate and what these could mean for the US policy environment. Topics included the outlook for taxation, regulation, permitting, immigration enforcement and government spending, as well as the potential for legislative gridlock, funding disputes and increased congressional oversight.
Global Trade
US, China agree on $30B tariff reduction framework; expand farm trade
The US and China agreed to a $30 billion tariff-reduction framework covering certain products, including agricultural goods, during the bilateral summit between US President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping over Sept. 23-25, China's Foreign Ministry said Sept. 26.
"The two heads of state acknowledged the positive role of the China-US trade consultation mechanism and the results of the consultations between the two trade teams, including the establishment and advancement of mechanisms such as the Trade Council, [and] the reaching of a $30 billion reciprocal tariff reduction arrangement," the ministry said.
Data Center
Data Center Cyber Risk Is Increasing And Underrecognized
A cyberattack affecting a significant data center operator and its facilities poses an increasing and underappreciated threat that could disrupt digital systems and weigh on the credit quality of a range of stakeholders, including data center customers. This applies to data center tenants and parties involved in their funding, such as the project finance sector and asset-backed securities.
Digitalization has created an unprecedented and growing dependency on data centers. Cloud services and the increasing importance of AI have made them foundational infrastructure for financial services, technology, health care, telecommunications and government operations. This importance is underscored by massive investments by technology giants, including Amazon, Microsoft, Alphabet, Oracle, Meta and SpaceX. Their combined capital expenditure will likely exceed $1.3 trillion in 2027, up from about $870 billion in 2026 and $470 billion in 2025, with much of that earmarked for data center operations.
In case you missed it
- US 10-year and five-year Treasury yields have risen above 5%, hitting their highest levels since 2007, after S&P Global flash Purchasing Managers’ Index data showed the US economy gaining momentum in September alongside signs of stubbornly high inflation, defying economists’ expectations of a slowdown.
- India intends to honor its overseas commitments for petroleum products, including diesel, assuring global markets that the country will maintain supplies despite geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and the Russia-Ukraine conflict.
- Consumers are cutting the pay TV cord, while wired home internet service providers are facing households that have never had broadband or are turning to fixed-wireless, satellite or mobile data alternatives.
Upcoming events
- Managing Country and Geopolitical Risk in an Era of Elevated Uncertainty | October 1 (New York)
- Annual Cyber Spotlight | October 6 (Webinar)
- Global Credit Conditions Q4 2026: Eroding Immunity | October 7 (Webinar)