Daily Update — October 16, 2026
Year 1 Review of EU’s CBAM; September Emerging Market Growth Lags; and An Uneven AI Transition
Today is Friday, October 16, 2026, and here’s your curated selection of Essential Intelligence on global markets from S&P Global. Subscribe to be notified of each new Daily Update.
Energy Expansion
Listen: Inside CBAM's first year: what traders, importers and policymakers learned
In this episode of the “Energy Evolution” podcast, host Eklavya Gupte reviewed the EU's Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) nearly a year into its definitive phase. Alwyn Hopkins, director and sustainability leader for industrials and energy at EY UK; Dan Maleski, director at EY’s Global Tax Center of Excellence; and Irina Breilean, senior carbon price reporter at Platts, part of S&P Global Energy, joined the episode to evaluate the effectiveness of the policy tool.
Together, they examined how punitive default emissions values are rewriting the economics of carbon-intensive imports, how traders are building proxy hedges to manage exposure to volatile EU carbon prices and why 2027 will mark a decisive shift from compliance accounting to live cash flow pressure. The episode also looks beyond the EU, tracing how CBAM is accelerating the development of carbon pricing regimes from India to Brazil, and what the UK's version of the mechanism, launching in January 2027, means for global trade flows.
Economy
Emerging markets growth lags developed economies in September
Emerging market output growth in September remained unchanged from August as a sharper rise in manufacturing production was countered by a slower increase in services business activity. The pace of emerging market growth contrasted with that of developed economies, where the expansion rate accelerated for the fourth consecutive month to the steepest level in almost 4.5 years.
An improving international environment should help drive stronger emerging market growth in the months ahead, as suggested by some forward-looking indicators from Purchasing Managers’ Index surveys compiled by S&P Global.
Artificial Intelligence
Picture This: An Uneven AI Transition
AI adoption is accelerating across industries, creating opportunities for stronger productivity and economic growth. An uneven transition could widen differences among economies and disrupt employment, particularly in countries and occupations that are less prepared for rapid technological change.
About 22% of firms globally dedicated resources to AI projects in 2025, while 28% planned to invest in AI in 2026, according to an S&P Global Purchasing Managers’ Index special survey. Productivity and efficiency gains have so far been the clearest benefits. In aggregate, 39% of firms reported that AI improved productivity in 2025, and most expected further gains as adoption expanded. The early employment effects are mixed. Although productivity gains are widespread, the overall effect on employment has turned slightly negative. Job losses have been concentrated in larger companies and in routine, medium-skilled functions.
In case you missed it
- India opened a large swath of previously inaccessible offshore basins through the Samudra Mantham program as it seeks to attract exploration and production investment.
- Global auto markets are diverging as competitive advantages shift and management teams increasingly prioritize restructuring over expansion. China has become a significant source of industry pressure as it increasingly exports excess capacity.
- US Midwest refiners have long produced more gasoline, diesel and jet fuel than the regional market can absorb. However, two pipeline developments could connect the region to higher-priced coastal markets.
Upcoming events
- M&A in Focus: Cross-Border Deals in a Fragmented World | October 20 (Webinar)
- Compass Series 2026, Baltics: Mapping Energy Expansion with Sustainability | October 22 (Riga, Latvia)
- Africa Summit 2026 | November 10-11 (Lagos, Nigeria)