Eli Lilly earnings preview: Q3 2026

Eli Lilly and Co. (NYSE: LLY) is set to report third-quarter results on Oct. 29, with analysts expecting a nearly 28% year-over-year rise in revenue to $22.5 billion, according to Visible Alpha consensus estimates. The projected surge is driven by robust demand for the company's obesity and diabetes treatments, which have become central to its growth strategy.

Lilly's adjusted diluted earnings per share are forecast at $7.03, up slightly from $7.02 a year earlier. Notably, the company has consistently outperformed analyst EPS expectations for seven consecutive quarters. Shares have climbed about 20% since the start of the year, and more than 60% year to date, reflecting confidence in the company's expanding portfolio.

Sales of Mounjaro and Zepbound — Lilly's flagship weight-loss drugs — are projected at nearly $10 billion and $5 billion, up about 53% and 39% year over year, respectively. Foundayo, a newly approved oral GLP-1 pill, is expected to contribute $234 million in its first full quarter following US Food and Drug Administration approval in April. Overall, Lilly's cardiometabolic health portfolio, which accounts for nearly 80% of total revenue, is forecast to grow about 35% to $17.8 billion for the quarter.

Looking ahead, retatrutide is seen as a pivotal next-generation asset in Lilly's obesity and diabetes pipeline. The investigational triple agonist is in Phase 3 trials across a range of cardiometabolic indications, with analysts assigning an 86% probability of success and projecting risk-adjusted sales at $357 million in 2027, rising to $1.84 billion in 2028. Peak global sales are estimated at $25.34 billion by 2037, with $20.13 billion expected in the drug's first five years on the market. At the Morgan Stanley 24th Annual Global Healthcare Conference in September, management described retatrutide as potentially complementary to tirzepatide, offering greater weight loss at higher doses and strong efficacy with favorable tolerability at lower doses.

Eloralintide, another key pipeline candidate, is expected to launch in 2028, with a 73% probability of success. Risk-adjusted sales are forecast at $73 million in 2028, rising to $878 million by 2029 and $13.17 billion in the drug's first five years. Peak global sales are projected at $9.71 billion by 2035.

Overall, consensus estimates point to a significant expansion of Lilly's obesity franchise beyond Lilly's two main tirzepatide drugs, with Foundayo providing an oral GLP-1 option, retatrutide broadening the efficacy range of incretin therapy, and eloralintide offering a differentiated amylin-based mechanism.

This article was published by Visible Alpha, part of S&P Global Market Intelligence and not by S&P Global Ratings, which is a separately managed division of S&P Global.