US Interconnection Queues See Natural Gas Surge as Renewables’ Share Declines for Second Year

Five Key Takeaways from the 2026 US Interconnection Queues Analysis

1. Why is the share of renewables in US interconnection queues declining?

The composition of US power generation queues is undergoing a notable transformation. As of June 2026, the total tracked capacity stands at a substantial 1,740 GW. However, the share of renewable and battery storage projects fell for the second consecutive year to 83% of the total. This trend is influenced by two primary factors: the accelerated phaseout of renewable tax credits under the H.R. 1 budget reconciliation bill of July 2025 and a concurrent surge in proposals for gas-fired generation. Stand-alone solar projects experienced the most significant annual percentage drop at 22%, followed by battery storage (-12.5%) and wind (-9.5%). This shift signals a potential rebalancing of development priorities as developers respond to new policy incentives and pressing market demands.

2. How is the rise of data centers impacting the generation mix?

The boom in energy-intensive data centers is a primary driver behind the resurgence of natural gas in interconnection queues. Proposed gas capacity jumped nearly 68% year-over-year, building on a 159% increase in the prior year. This trend is most pronounced in regions with significant data center development, such as the non-ISO Southeast, where gas projects now constitute 46% of all proposed capacity. The non-ISO West and ERCOT also saw significant increases in gas proposals. This dynamic highlights the tension between meeting near-term, large-scale power demand and advancing long-term decarbonization goals, with gas-fired generation being positioned as a solution for ensuring grid reliability amid rapid load growth.

3. Which regions lead in specific generation technologies?

Analysis of regional queues reveals distinct technology preferences across the country. Hybrid projects, primarily solar-plus-storage, are the dominant choice in western markets, accounting for 70% of capacity in CAISO and also leading in the non-ISO West and ERCOT. Stand-alone battery storage is the top technology in NYISO and ISO New England, while stand-alone solar leads in MISO, PJM, and SPP. In stark contrast, the non-ISO Southeast has pivoted toward thermal generation, where natural gas is the technology of choice. These regional specializations reflect differing resource availability, market structures, policy environments, and the specific nature of local demand growth.

4. How do interconnection backlogs vary at the state level?

At the state level, Texas leads the nation with 456 GW of generation capacity in its queues, followed by California with 160 GW. While these states maintain high shares of renewables (85% and 97%, respectively), the national trend shows a broader decline. The share of renewables in proposed generation mixes fell in 39 states, with 18 states experiencing double-digit percentage-point drops. Connecticut saw the largest decline, falling 49 percentage points to a 51% renewable share. States with the lowest proportion of proposed renewables include West Virginia (14%) and Tennessee (15%), indicating significant geographic disparities in the energy transition pipeline.

5. Are grid connection reforms having an effect?

Efforts to streamline the grid connection process, notably through FERC Order 2023's "First Ready, First Serve" cluster study approach, are showing early signs of progress. The proportion of total queue capacity with an approved interconnection agreement has increased, surpassing 22% in the latest analysis. This suggests that reforms aimed at discouraging speculative projects and improving study efficiency are beginning to yield positive results. Among non-hybrid projects with agreements, solar (40%), battery storage (25%), and wind (19%) represent the vast majority. While backlogs and wait times remain a challenge in several regions, the upward trend in approved agreements offers a positive indicator for future project development.

How S&P Capital IQ Pro Supports Power Market Analysis

Navigating the complexities of US interconnection queues requires comprehensive, standardized data and powerful analytical tools. S&P Capital IQ Pro: Energy service provides granular access to queue data across all ISOs and major non-ISO utilities, enabling users to track technology trends, regional backlogs, and project-specific milestones from entry to commercial operation. By harmonizing disparate data sources, our platform allows energy analysts, investors, and strategists to identify market opportunities, assess development risk, and understand the evolving generation mix with precision. This data is critical for forecasting capacity additions, modeling regional power prices, and making informed decisions in a rapidly changing energy landscape.

Key questions arising from the 2026 US Interconnection Queues Analysis

What is the total capacity of power projects in US interconnection queues?
As of June 2026, the combined capacity of power generation projects in US interconnection queues tracked by S&P Global was 1,740 GW. This includes projects across all seven independent system operators (ISOs) and major utilities in non-ISO regions.

Why is natural gas capacity increasing in US interconnection queues?
Proposed natural gas capacity has surged nearly 68% year-over-year, largely driven by the need to power a boom in energy-intensive data centers. This trend is particularly strong in the non-ISO Southeast, where gas represents 46% of the queue.

Which renewable technology has seen the biggest decline in new proposals?
Stand-alone solar projects experienced the largest annual percentage drop in queue capacity, declining by 22%. This pullback is attributed to the accelerated phaseout of federal tax credits and a broader market rebalancing after years of rapid growth.

Which US state has the most generation capacity awaiting grid connection?
Texas leads the US with approximately 456 GW of proposed generation capacity in its interconnection queues. California is second with 160 GW of capacity awaiting grid connection.

Are FERC's queue reforms working?
Early data suggests that reforms like those in FERC Order 2023 are having a positive impact. The share of projects with a signed interconnection agreement has risen to over 22%, indicating that efforts to streamline the process and reduce speculative entries are beginning to take effect.

Which regions have the highest share of renewables in their queues?
NYISO leads with 100% renewable or storage projects in its queue, followed by CAISO at 97.9%. In contrast, the non-ISO Southeast has the lowest share at 50.2%, reflecting its significant increase in natural gas proposals.