In this update of our annual study of discovery-to-production lead times, 14 years is the average lead time for the 203 operating mines in this study, discovered and brought into production between 1990 and 2025. We also included 29 nonoperating mines that have at least undergone feasibility studies, and estimated startup dates for when the owners have not provided guidance. For these nonoperating assets, the lead time has increased significantly, reaching nearly 30 years — five times longer than the lead time observed in the 1990s. When operating and nonoperating mines are combined, the average lead time from discovery to production is 16 years for the 232 assets.

➤ Permitting delays stretch mine lead times to nearly 30 years.

➤ Mining pipeline clogs as permits stall; projects face multiyear setbacks and even cancellations.

➤ Governments race to streamline mine permits to address this decades-long issue.

Mines scheduled to begin production in 2026 and beyond are now expected to experience startup delays, primarily due to delays in permitting issues or revocations. As these timelines are pushed back, some projects have had their expected start dates postponed by up to five years. In some cases, companies have withdrawn their guidance entirely, resulting in uncertainty about when, or if, these mines will open.

Resolution and Loma Larga

The Resolution copper project in Arizona was initially estimated to start production by 2030, which already equated to a 35-year timeline from discovery to production. Native American tribes consider the site sacred, while federal agencies have rescinded and paused permits — factors that have contributed to the delay. In a recent interview, Katie Jackson, Chief Executive of copper for Rio Tinto PLC, said the startup of the Resolution project could be pushed back to mid-2030s.

In March 2025, the 9th Circuit Court of Appeals issued a temporary restraining order, blocking the Oak Flat land transfer that would have moved 2,400 acres from the federal government to Resolution project in exchange for 5,000 acres of ecologically valuable land in Arizona. In March 2026, the court lifted the injunction and denied further requests, allowing the land transfer to proceed and the company to own the land required for the construction of the mine. In the same month, Resolution also received approval of its final environmental impact statement (EIS), clearing the biggest hurdle in federal permitting.

Despite this development, Arizona state permitting is pending, including for water and air usage and tailings management. Detailed mine plan approvals are also pending, and legal challenges may still slow the timeline. Construction will take longer than a typical mine, as the deposit is 1 kilometer deep.

The Loma Larga gold project in Ecuador, fully owned by Toronto-based DPM Metals Inc., was removed from the list. Its environmental license was revoked in October 2025 by Ecuador's Ministry of Environment and Energy, just four months after it was issued. Indigenous groups, farmers and local authorities had an immediate backlash and protest after the license was approved in June 2025, as the project sits near a critical water resource for the region. The protest forced the government to suspend activities, making it the most significant project cancellations in the region. There is currently no pathway to mine construction.

Policies and reforms

In the last three to four years, many major mining jurisdictions have introduced reforms and new regulations to address the long permitting process. The infographic below shows some of the most notable policies and reforms around the world.

Many governments, think tanks and private corporations acknowledge that the long and complex permitting process for mine construction is a major point of friction in mine development. To address this, governments are introducing ways to streamline the approval process, reduce duplication and improve transparency in the process.

However, expectations need to remain grounded. Policy outcomes are not driven solely by economic or strategic priorities; they are also shaped by public sentiment and political accountability. Local communities, Indigenous groups and civil society organizations play a decisive role in project approvals.