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Summary
The September quarter of 2026 was defined by a shift in the drivers of metals prices: The energy shock from the US-Israel war with Iran broadened into a wider inflation problem, central banks pivoted from easing to tightening and investors grew wary of the growth outlook. Disruption around the Strait of Hormuz kept crude elevated, but gasoline and diesel were the larger inflationary drivers, lifting fuel, freight and input costs. Major central banks, led by the US Federal Reserve, raised rates, and long-dated bond yields climbed to multidecade highs. Rising interest rates threatened the demand resilience nonferrous metals showed through the first half of the year, as tighter financial conditions weighed on industrial activity. Trade policy added another layer of volatility, as US Section 232 tariff uncertainty continued to pull copper into the US, while tighter Indonesian control over nickel ore output underscored how far government discretion shapes supply.
Commodity markets diverged. Copper remained the standout base metal, with concentrate scarcity still the tightest part of the value chain, though elevated prices began to prompt substitution and deferred purchasing. Precious metals lost momentum as rising real yields drew investors toward income-bearing assets. Battery and critical mineral markets remained under pressure: Inventory concerns whipsawed lithium prices, while the continued move toward lithium-iron-phosphate (LFP) chemistries weighed on cobalt. Exploration budgets reached their highest level in more than a decade, but spending remained concentrated on known deposits and existing mines, positive project milestones declined and financing conditions tightened late in the period.
Join our analysts as we provide a recap of the September 2026 quarter and our short-term outlooks for the fourth quarter and 2027. We will discuss the following key trends and topics:
- Macroeconomic and geopolitical market drivers
- Commodity price trends, market balances and mine costs
- M&A, finance, exploration and development metrics
Speakers
S&P Global Energy
Nick Trickett
Associate Director, Short Term Analytics, Critical Minerals
Nick Trickett is an associate director with the Energy Capital Insights team covering mining & metals, cross-commodity and macroeconomic dynamics within energy expansion, and cleantech value chains. A Russianist and political economy specialist by training, his work touches on most of S&P Global Energy's research lines, providing multi-disciplinary thematic insights with a focus on financial clients and the intersection of geopolitics, macroeconomics, and commodity markets.
Nick holds an MA in Russian studies from the European University in St. Petersburg where he focused on energy politics and an MSc in international political economy from the London School of Economics. He holds a broad range of professional experience following several years in the D.C. policy world, including extensive consulting work on Russia and Eurasia, relevant briefing workshops for the State Department, National Intelligence Council, and the Foreign, Commonwealth, and Development Office in the UK, a stint as an oil & gas consultant with Wood Mackenzie, a mining & metals analyst with Fitch Solutions, and the global BD lead for mining & metals at White & Case prior to joining S&P. He is the author of the forthcoming book Empire of Austerity: Russia and the Breaking of Eurasia with Hurst Publishers.
S&P Global Energy
Patricia Barreto
Associate Director, Short-term Analytics, Critical Minerals
Patricia Barreto is a Senior Analyst in the Metals and Mining Research Team at S&P Global Energy, based in São Paulo. She specializes in the fundamental analysis of supply and demand to develop price outlooks for base metals markets.
Prior to joining S&P Global, she spent over eight years at zinc producer Nexa Resources SA, where she mostly acted as a zinc and copper analyst. Her expertise includes price forecasting, comprehensive supply and demand analysis, and commercial intelligence. Patricia holds a BE in Materials Engineering from the Federal University of ABC in Brazil.
S&P Global Energy
Francesca Price
Senior Principal Analyst, Critical Mineral Markets
Francesca Price is a Senior Analyst in the Metals and Mining Research team at S&P Global Energy, based in London. With a background in mining geology, Francesca has been covering the metals markets since 2019, initially focused on precious metals and PGMs, and more recently expanding her scope to look at all critical raw materials.
Francesca's primary focus now is the policy environment of critical minerals, assessing how political, technological, economic, environmental and legislative changes will affect these commodity markets, in the context of the energy transition. Francesca joined the Department for Business and Trade in 2023 as a Senior Policy Advisor for critical minerals, helping deliver high priority workstreams within the UK’s Critical Minerals Strategy for HM Government. Francesca holds a BSc in Geology from the University of Leeds.
Questions?
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