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Summary
The June quarter of 2026 was defined by a sharp divergence across metals and mining markets: Upstream supply chains tightened, refined metal balances softened in some markets and geopolitical risk continued to reshape costs, trade flows and procurement strategies. The US-Israel war with Iran remained a central macro driver, feeding into higher fuel, freight and reagent costs. A tripling of sulfur prices to more than $1,000 per metric ton was significant, increasing cost and availability risks for high-pressure acid leach (HPAL) nickel and solvent extraction-electrowinning (SX-EW) copper producers. Trade policy added another layer of volatility. The quarter saw further fragmentation in steel and metals trade, with US Section 232 tariffs of 50% on steel and aluminum reinforcing pressure on seaborne trade flows, while the European Commission published new country-specific steel quotas ahead of measures taking effect July 1, 2026.
Commodity markets were mixed. Copper remained the standout base metal, with concentrate availability still the tightest part of the value chain, while precious metals lost some momentum through the quarter after a strong start to 2026. Battery and critical mineral markets remained bifurcated: sustained pressure from rising visible inventories weakened lithium carbonate prices in China, while shifting battery chemistries and growing secondary supply challenged cobalt prices, despite upstream tightness.
Exploration and development indicators were volatile throughout the quarter, and capital-market signals softened late in the period.
Join our analysts as we provide a recap of the June 2026 quarter and provide our near-term outlooks for the second half of the year. We will discuss the following key trends and topics:
- Macroeconomic and geopolitical challenges
- Commodity price trends, mine costs and emissions
- M&A, finance, exploration and development metrics
Speakers
S&P Global Energy
Katherine Matthews
Principal Analyst, Mine Economics & Emissions
Katherine Matthews is an Associate Research Analyst in the Mine Economics team of S&P Global Energy, where she is responsible for building and maintaining financial models for numerous operations globally, covering a wide range of commodities including gold, nickel and uranium. Katherine has previously worked in Azerbaijan and Western Australia as a Project Mine Geologist in porphyry copper and gold deposits, working in both exploration and underground gold mines. Katherine holds a Masters in Applied and Economic Geology from the University of Leicester.
S&P Global Energy
Joenelle Donato
Analyst, Nickel, Non-Ferrous Markets
Analyst, Nickel, Non-Ferrous Markets, S&P Global Energy
S&P Global Energy
Louanne De Sales
Analyst, Mine Economics & Emissions
Analyst, Mine Economics & Emissions, S&P Global Energy
S&P Global Energy
Pranay Shukla, MICS, F.NMIS
Director, Metals Trading Research
Pranay is a Director of Research & Analysis within the Fuels, Chemicals, and Resource Solutions department at S&P Global Energy. His primary focus is on dry bulk commodities and shipping, and he is responsible for coordinating the analysis of global dry bulk commodities markets. This includes developing global and regional supply and demand balances, short- to medium-term forecasts, cost projections, and asset ownership league tables. Pranay also provides scenario analysis and supports Multiclient Studies to his team.
Prior to joining S&P Global Energy, Pranay worked as a senior trading analyst covering dry bulk commodities and freight at Mercuria Energy Trading. He also analyzed global LNG and LPG markets at Drewry Shipping Consultants.
Pranay has a Postgraduate Management degree in Finance and is a member of the Institute of Chartered Shipbrokers, Singapore branch. Additionally, he is a Fellow of the Narottam Morarjee Institute of Shipping.
Questions?
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