Mar. 28 2019 — S&P Global Ratings' latest survey of 21 countries most exposed to Brexit lists Ireland, Luxembourg, and the Netherlands as the economies most susceptible to any trade and migratory aftershocks.
Our Brexit Sensitivity Index (BSI) measures goods and services exports to the U.K., bidirectional migrant flows, financial sector claims on U.K. counterparties on an ultimate risk basis, and foreign direct investment (FDI) in the U.K. (excluding FDI claims attributed to special purpose entities, see Appendix). The BSI is the sum of these four data points all normalized and converted into a scale from 0 to 1. The higher the sum, the greater the exposure.
We first published our BSI on June 9, 2016, two weeks before the U.K. national referendum on whether the country should leave the EU. Since then, we have modified our methodology for calculating two of the four BSI factors, so that the data more accurately reflect financial linkages between European economies and the U.K.