The US Department of Agriculture made further cuts in its Brazilian and Argentinian soybean output projections from previous estimates on prolonged and severe drought in South America, especially in the southern parts of Brazil and eastern Argentina, it said March 9.
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In its World Agriculture Supply and Demand Estimate report, the USDA set its production estimate at 127 million mt for the Brazil soybeans in crop year 2021-22 (September-August), down 7 million mt on February estimates. While the Argentinian soybean production forecast has also been reduced by 1.5 million mt on previous estimates to 43.5 million mt, the report said.
Global soybean production is reduced 10.1 million mt to 353.8 million mt, the USDA said. Apart from output cuts in Brazil and Argentina, Paraguay is lowered 1 million mt to 5.3 million mt, and Uruguay is lowered 0.6 million mt to 2.0 million mt, the report said.
According to the average analysts' estimates, Brazil 2021-22 soybean output was expected at 129 million mt. For Argentina, the analysts forecast 43.4 million mt.
S&P Global commodity Insights Analytics sees Brazil's soybean output in 2021-22 in the range of 131-133 million mt and 45-47 million mt for Argentina.
China's soybean demand in 2021-22 has also been reduced by 3 million mt on February estimates to 94 million mt, the USDA's report said.
Lower supplies and higher prices reduce global meal demand, particularly for China where soybean crush was also lowered by 2 million mt to 92 million mt, the USDA said.
For the US soybeans, 2021-22 productions are held steady at 4.435 billion bushels (120.8 million mt), steady on February estimates and 219 million bushels lower year on year.
Soybean harvested area for the US is estimated at 86.3 million acres, steady on the previous report.
The US soybean yield forecast for the 2021-22 marketing year (September-August) has been estimated at 51.4 bu/acre, unchanged on previous estimate in January.
The USDA sees the US soybean crush for the 2021-22 marketing year at 2.215 billion bushels (60.3 million mt), up 25 million bushels on previous estimates.
Soybean crush is forecast higher from last month on favorable crush margins and improving prospects for soybean meal exports, the USDA said.
Soybean exports estimates have been raised to 2.090 billion bushels (56.88 million mt) from the previous estimate of 2.050 billion bushels (55.8 million mt), the report said. However, 2021-22 ending stocks are projected at 285 million bushels (7.75 million mt), down 40 million bushels on previous estimate, the USDA said.
Soybean exports are raised on lower production and reduced exports for South America, the report said.
US soybean complex
US soybean meal production estimates for the 2021-22 marketing year are forecast at 51.9 million st, steady on February estimates, while the ending stocks estimate remained steady at 400,000 st, the USDA said.
The soybean meal price was forecast at $420/st, up $10/st month on month, according to the WASDE report.
US soybean oil production was estimated at 26.2 billion lb, unchanged on last month's estimate, while the soybean oil price forecast was up 2 cents on February estimates at 68 cents/lb.
With rising soybean oil prices, soybean oil used for biofuel is reduced this month, the USDA said. Soybean oil exports are raised in response to reduced global sunflower seed oil trade and tighter global vegetable oil supplies, it said.