Global Insight Perspective | |
Significance | The official U.K. terrorism threat level has been lifted from "severe" to "critical" following the swoop by police and the security services. This is the first time the threat level has been raised since the July 2005 bombings in London. |
Implications | While alleged bomb plots should always be treated with caution, the huge police response this time suggests that the plans were advanced and credible. Flights have been suspended out of key airports, causing chaos for travellers. |
Outlook | The United Kingdom has long been seen as a prime target for militant Islamic groups given its close involvement in the United States-led "war on terror" and the known presence of extremist Muslims in the country. This will continue to be the case for the foreseeable future. The 2005 London bomb attacks were nonetheless home-grown, suggesting that international networks such as al-Qaida are having little success evading tough security precautions. |
"Very Significant Plot"
The United Kingdom's counter-terrorist resources have been mobilised on a huge scale since yesterday evening. Police arrested 21 people in connection with an alleged plot to bring down airliners flying between the United Kingdom and the United States. The arrests were made in London, the nearby Thames Valley area, and Birmingham, but there are no other details so far about the individuals in question. Searches are continuing at the addresses, and more arrests may follow. The country's official terrorism alert status has been raised from "severe" to "critical" by the Joint Terrorism Analysis Centre, the highest level on the five-point scale. This warning system was coincidentally only made public last month. The U.S. Department of Homeland Security has meanwhile raised its threat level for commercial flights from the United Kingdom to the United States to the highest "severe" or red level, and to "high" or orange for all other air traffic in and out of the United States. This means additional security checks and other precautions for passengers flying in and out of that country.
From initial reports, it seems that the plot involved hiding explosive devices in passenger hand luggage that would be capable of bringing down airliners. Sky News has reported that six planes were targeted, although the Press Association mentions nine. Police say that the plot amounted to "an attempt to commit mass murder on an unimaginable scale". They are confident that the plot has been successfully disrupted, although the additional security at airports shows that no chances are being taken. Home Secretary John Reid said that the plot was "very significant" and would have involved multiple aircraft. The arrests followed a joint operation between the Metropolitan Police's anti-terrorist branch and the security services that lasted several months.
Airport Chaos
British airports are now in chaos, with greatly tightened security causing huge delays and many cancellations. Thousands of passengers are already crowding terminals, and the situation will get worse. British Airways has cancelled all its short-haul inbound and outbound flights from London's Heathrow Airport, and most flights destined for that airport from abroad have been suspended. Departing passengers from U.K. airports are not allowed any hand luggage except a few essentials placed in transparent bags. All other bags are being checked into holds and pockets must be empty. Mothers carrying bottles of baby milk are even being required to taste the contents. The tight controls on liquids suggest that liquid explosives were suspected, perhaps chemicals that could be mixed together in-flight. All possessions are being x-rayed, including footwear. This is the height of the summer holiday season and airports are especially busy.
Outlook and Implications
The news has inevitably reawakened memories of the terrorist attacks of 7 July 2005 that killed 56 people aboard London Underground trains and a bus. The four suicide attacks were carried out by British Muslims, most from northern England. Copycat attacks were attempted two weeks later, but the bombs failed to explode. The incidents confirmed fears that the United Kingdom faces a severe terrorist threat on its soil, as much from radicalised British Muslims as from foreign individuals. This threat has been especially heightened since the United Kingdom became a prominent player in the "war on terror". The invasion of Iraq has been cited as a major radicalising factor, although the government argues that through pre-emptive action in Afghanistan, Iraq and elsewhere it has lessened the threat from transnational terrorist groups. Indeed, al-Qaida has only managed a limited number of "conventional" terrorist attacks on overseas U.S. and U.K. interests since the attacks of 11 September 2001. It remains to be seen whether the latest airline plot was as concrete and advanced as the authorities are indicating, and whether al-Qaida had a hand in it. It is too early to say whether the individuals were part of a self-motivated group or members of an international network. The latter would be a more worrying scenario as the plot could be followed by others. In terms of operational disruption, air travel is very badly affected and the situation will probably take several days to return to normal. However, elsewhere in the United Kingdom it should be a case of business as usual. Even after the July 2005 attacks, London resumed its normal pace remarkably quickly. Some attribute this resilience to experience of decades of terrorism, previously committed by the Irish Republican Army (IRA).