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Podcast — Jul 05, 2025 The Decisive | Season 3 Ep.27 - Strategic Opportunities: Flipping the Script on the Risk Story By Kristen Hallam, Cassandra Pagan, Justin Valentino, and Natasha McSwiggan How do you identify which markets present the best opportunity for growth, and which are especially vulnerable to fluctuating trade and tariff policies? In this episode of The Decisive podcast, host Kristen Hallam uncovers the origin stories behind two tools created to address these key questions: the Strategic Opportunity Index (SOI) and the Trade and Tariff Vulnerability Index (TTV). Joining Kristen for this discussion are expert guests Cassandra Pagan, Justin Valentino, and Natasha McSwiggan. The discussion begins with an exploration of the SOI, designed to provide clarity in a complex geopolitical and trade landscape by evaluating market attractiveness through five key pillars: market potential, policy favorability, institutional quality, logistics efficiency, and resource availability. The guests share insights on how momentum scoring within the SOI helps identify expanding market opportunities, emphasizing the importance of understanding market trajectories rather than just current standings. The conversation also highlights the origin stories behind both indices, showcasing the collaborative efforts of the team to create tools that can guide strategic decision-making for businesses navigating global trade dynamics. The experts discuss how the TTV assesses the vulnerability of economies to tariffs, providing valuable insights for businesses to adapt and strategize in the face of evolving U.S. trade policies. Listeners will gain a deeper understanding of how these indices can inform economic decisions, identify potential risks, and uncover opportunities in the global marketplace. Join us for an engaging discussion that combines analytical rigor with practical applications, perfect for anyone interested in the intersection of economics and global trade. More S&P Global Market Intelligence Content: The Strategic Opportunity Index Uncertain US Tariff Policy Raises Risks for Trading Partners Country Risk Month Ahead: July 2025 Credits: Host: Kristen Hallam Guests: Cassandra Pagan, Justin Valentino, Natasha McSwiggan Produced By: Kristen Hallam Edited By: Marz Marcello Published With Assistance From: Sophie Carr, Feranmi Adeoshun Explore our library of S&P Global Market Intelligence podcasts Listen Now View Full Transcript Kristin Hallam [00:00:03]: You're listening to the Decisive Podcast Insights and analysis to empower confident decision making. Welcome to the Decisive Podcast brought to you by S and P Global Market Intelligence. I'm your host, Kristin Hallam. In many of our episodes we talk about risks, economic, geopolitical, supply chain, maritime and trade. In this episode we're discussing opportunities as well as risks and a pair of indices that can inform decision making. Joining me for this discussion are Cassandra Pagan, Senior Principal Analyst, Models and Scenarios, Justin Valentino, Head of Risk quantification, and Natasha McSwiggin, principal economist and Banking Risk Service. Welcome to the podcast everyone. It's great to have you all on the Decisive. Justin Valentino [00:00:58]: Thank you very much Kristen. I think you've really assembled the avengers of indices for the global insight world today. Kristin Hallam [00:01:04]: I think so as well. So with that, let's jump into it. Justin, can you explain what the Strategic Opportunity Index is? Justin Valentino [00:01:16]: Yeah, of course. So in order to address the pressing need by decision makers to for clarity and understanding in an increasingly complex, very complex geopolitical and trade environment, we built this index from the curated data across Global insights, Market Intelligence really to answer the root question, what makes a market attractive and viable? So to answer that, we separated these curated data sets from across the business into five pillars. One, Market potential, which is the extent to which a market is open and innovative. Two policy favorability policies, regulations that support or encourage new enterprises. 3 Institutional quality, which is really just the effectiveness of state institutions. 4. Logistics efficiency, looking at supply chain, infrastructure and disruption and finally resource availability, which is access to finance, capital and labor, which all sounds a bit standard when you list it out like that. So we came up with the analogy of climbing a mountain when looking at both progress and performance. Justin Valentino [00:02:26]: Full disclosure, I had just gotten back from my trekking through Snowdonia here in the uk, so it was very much fresh in my mind when Cassandra and I were ideating about this. So for the soi, like in hiking, you have countries at the base of progress which may be slightly stagnant or even backsliding for growth. Then you start the ascent and these countries, which may face some challenges, either internal or external, but are still improving relative to their peers. Then you have a nice break along the plateau, which are mostly our OECD countries or more mature markets that would find it difficult to maintain the same level of dynamic growth that maybe they once had. Finally you arrive at the ridge where you are rewarded with a beautiful vista to enjoy the stunning views or in this case, your high performing and dynamic markets. Kristin Hallam [00:03:19]: Oh well, I really like that analogy, Justin. It makes me want to go for a trek not far from where I am on the edge of the Blue Ridge Mountains here. So thanks for that. What is the origin story? You know, thinking about our Avengers analogy earlier. What is the origin story behind the Strategic Opportunity Index? Cassandra Pagan [00:03:39]: Oh, no. Okay, so we have to have an Avengers origin story. Okay, I'll jump in on this one today, us. Because I have had this idea for a long time and Justin really humored me and actually brought so much great energy in this beautiful analogy. But this is something that had been stewing in the back of my mind for a couple of years, actually. I have a background in developing index models and I at the time had been working with a client who was developing another index. They were really looking internally at themselves and they wanted to know how investors were feeling about the domestic market. And then the conversation turned to how we could externalize this and think about this from how the world sees this market kind of from the outside in, and how that really compared to how businesses and investors would think about where they stand relative to some of the key competitors that they were thinking about. Cassandra Pagan [00:04:33]: So I jumped at the opportunity and said, justin, I really want to do this. And I showed up to their offices in person with a pile of Post it notes and Sharpies, if you can't tell. I kind of come from the Silicon Valley ideo world of design thinking from my previous lives. And we got to work on designing what was for them a really custom model about how we could think about these big macro factors that were driving the business environment and kind of the investment climate. So that project I really love because we were able to customize this index model that split spoke directly to the policy goals that they had in mind and had laid out in this broader reform agenda. So we got to really do the design thinking work of building backwards. And we ended up with effectively what was a KPI for the government to track progress towards their goals and guide policy decisions and their prioritization. So, you know, when you're thinking about how you're going to change all of these different things within a market, it can be really hard to decide on what to tackle first. Cassandra Pagan [00:05:36]: And so having the data really tell that story for you makes it a lot easier to go and convince other people that maybe they should kind of get on board with these changes. So one of the big things that they were really trying to do was bringing in FDI while also opening the market to the world, but in a way that would benefit local businesses and local markets. Thinking about, you know, the local labor markets and not just kind of creating this free for all environments. So that allowed us to think really creatively about the different forces that would shape how we could think about the business environment and what would drive that goal of creating something that was really sustainable and kind of open opportunities, not just for the companies that would come into this market, but also the companies that were already operating there. And what we ended up with was like a truly custom version and that married together a lot of the S and P global market intelligence data that they already had, product brought in, some new data that they weren't aware of, and then layered that on with some of the data that they were holding onto, you know, maybe from their national statistics office, and some more information that could give us just a completely different level of richness than we would have, you know, kind of been taking from existing benchmarks about competitiveness that, that are out there in the world. So this project was a huge success. It was, it was really fun. And we got a lot of buy in from the highest levels of government and we turned around and said, well, we should do this. Cassandra Pagan [00:07:06]: For us, there's no reason we can't do this. We have all of this data, we have all this information. And so we developed our own version which is now the Strategic Opportunity Index. This version is agnostic to any kind of industry or policy agenda and is, like I said, really built on the beauty that is S and P market intelligence data with a handful of smidgens of data that we pulled from public sources. So to actually make this happen again, I took another pile of Post IT notes and Sharpies to our office in London and got to work with this great group of in house experts like Justin and Natasha. And we developed what is now the Strategic Opportunity Index, or lovingly called the SOI within our team that we're so proud of today. And the exercise was different than some of the other work we had done because it was all about like what you said, Kristen, about kind of flipping the script on what we're already known for in the market, which is risk. And we could transform those data and think creatively about how we take what we already had in house and where we usually are looking at the downside, how we could tell a new story of opportunities and where it's expanding. Justin Valentino [00:08:15]: Having gotten a chance to experience Cassie's post it notes and Sharpie method firsthand, sprawled all over a conference room, it was, it was really a sight to behold. And I absolutely became a convert to that method. Kristin Hallam [00:08:28]: Henceforth yeah, I almost wish this was a video podcast because between the post it notes and the Sharpies image and then, you know, the smidgens of data and watching Cassie just plucking, plucking data out of the air, that was really cool. So thanks Cassandra for sharing the origin story of the soi. How does the SOI compare to other global indices? What would you say are its distinguishing characteristics? Justin Valentino [00:08:55]: Justin so there's a classic aphorism which I love. I'm pretty sure it was a uni professor that I first heard this, but it's generally applied to statistical models that all models are wrong, but some can be useful and I really feel like that is just as valid when discussing the broader universe of indices. There is an abundance of widely circulated and cited indices from every international organization, academic institution and think tank, you name it. So we asked during that working group, what can we provide that isn't already out there apart from obviously leveraging the wealth of trusted S and P global market intelligence data that we can rely on internally? One of the really cool, unique things we do at the SOI is the introduction of momentum scoring, which sounds complicated, but it's actually a pretty basic concept. But the stories that allows the index to tell is actually the really fun part. Since we have such a rich history of data, we can simply take the growth rate of the index to switch the focus from where a market currently ranks to focus instead on that on the trajectory of individual markets and identify where these opportunities are expanding. Take a country like Namibia for example, where with recent oil and gas exploration and gold and mining expansion, its momentum score for some of the previously mentioned sub pillars like resource availability and logistics efficiency were globally some of the highest. I think it ranked something like third for resource availability and fifth or sixth for logistics efficiency, which was really the exciting nuggets that we kind of came across when interrogating the data. Cassandra Pagan [00:10:41]: Yeah, I love the idea of momentum because you find winners different than the usual kind of top 10 from your classic index that's kind of going to be measuring some similar aspects. Right. So it really rewards markets that have shown a lot of improvement over time. And so maybe you're starting from a different place, but you see where, where people have made a lot of progress and change. And I feel like it's a really nice way of acknowledging also where we've come from and not just where we are now. Kristin Hallam [00:11:12]: It almost feels like the title of a self help book or something. Very, very inspirational there. So you've, you've kind of touched on this A little bit. But what would you say is the main purpose of the Strategic Opportunity Index? What of the use cases, if you will, Cassandra? Cassandra Pagan [00:11:29]: Sure. Yeah. So, I mean, we've talked about how this is, you know, about flipping the script on the wrist story, and we've talked a bit about, you know, momentum and acknowledging kind of where we've come from and how far we've gotten from the beginning of the SOI story. So we built this backwards 10 years, just to kind of give you a bit of context, because we were sitting on all of the data to be able to do it. But really what this is meant for is to be able to either track the continuation of change, but it also gives us a jumping off point internally, like for us to think about all the different directions that we could take this. Right. So, you know, like I mentioned, the origin story of this was for a specific client in a specific context, and they were trying to, you know, track their progress over time towards the specific policy agenda. But it's also a really useful way if you're trying to compare different markets and you're thinking about, you know, where could I go next and where would be an interesting market. Cassandra Pagan [00:12:25]: You're going to get that same classic, you know, these are the top 10 always in these rankings. And momentum gives us a little bit more depth to that perspective. Right. So being able to look at the trajectory lets us kind of tell a story. Well, maybe if you're considering market entry, for example, this would be a place where things are actually changing fast. And this is a place that's showing a lot of progress. So maybe they're not in the top today, but they might be tomorrow. So that's where that narrative around the ascent and the ridge and the base and the plateau kind of comes into play. Cassandra Pagan [00:12:57]: So it gives us a new framing, but also for us, it lets us have kind of a jumping off point for all the different directions that we could take this index. Right. So I get to sit in a unique part of models and scenarios where I work very directly with clients, mostly on custom work. So having this model already in mind basically gives me the spaghetti to throw at the wall for the ideas. And there's so many different directions that we can take it. Right. So we designed it really kind of with LEGO bricks in mind, where we could kind of pull a piece out and put a piece back in and shuffle the deck, how we needed to, to create all of these different structures that would be interesting for answering the kinds of questions that clients come to us for. Right. Cassandra Pagan [00:13:39]: So we can swap things around and quickly add like industry specific elements. By looking at some of our more industry specific data sets and adding in those aspects, we can also tailor this to specific regions. Right. So there's parts of the world where some issues are a higher order of concern than others. So if we're thinking about a specific region, we might consider the availability of talent in a different way than we would in another part of the world. Right. So being able to shuffle that deck not only in the kinds of inputs that we have, but also how we're thinking about priorities and what are the most pressing issues within a region kind of gives us, gives us some of that flexibility. But we can also create new collaborations. Cassandra Pagan [00:14:20]: Right. So again, I get to sit in a really fun space within the business where I get to reach out to different colleagues and think about how we can take different measures that we're already creating and bring them together. So one way that we're trying to do this right now is by collaborating with our colleagues over at the Container Port Performance Index, so another index and really deepen our understanding about the role of ports and logistics and supply chains to the idea of how we're measuring competitiveness, which is of course really important over the last few years, really in that post Covid space, thinking about how that affects the decisions that we make about where we're going to go. If you're considering market entry or if you're considering how to prioritize policy decisions, there's lots of possibilities here. And so we're always seeking new collaborations and ideas with our colleagues. And that's really what makes it so, so fun. And what is, you know, kind of the main purpose is really again to give us that spaghetti to throw at the wall. Kristin Hallam [00:15:16]: This may literally be one of the most visually image rich episodes of the decisive that we've ever recorded. We've got spaghetti on the wall, we've got LEGO bricks, we've got trekking, we've got, we've got all the things, smidgens of data. I love it. So again, I think you've, you've touched on this a little bit. But what types of data. Let's get a little more granular here. Like what types of data sources does the SOI leverage and how do you ensure the reliability of this information? Justin Valentino [00:15:47]: Sure. So when designing the SOI in the beginning, we got to do the fun bit that every quantity person loves when given absolute free rein on data. And this was getting our hands dirty, really in the muds on nearly every data set, that market intelligence has available from our widely used and trusted country risk scores to our banking risk and default risk scores, to consumer markets, literally the breadth of our entirety of our economic forecasting, that we were trying just about everything of seeing what was available. But then simultaneously, and this is where we were constrained by Kassie's brilliant post it note workshop that keeping in mind what gaps are out there with other offerings and then what would be most useful to our clients, first and foremost, Kassy, are there any data sets in particular that you were excited to discover or that we got to venture into along the way? Cassandra Pagan [00:16:46]: That's a good question, Justin. I just want to clarify that I love all of our data sets equally. So as a mother, that is important for me to say. Kristin Hallam [00:16:54]: No favorite child. Cassandra Pagan [00:16:55]: Okay, no favorite child. No. But really I think I was a spirit, especially excited to dig into the trade data because it's so rich and granular and at the time I just hadn't had very many opportunities to go play with it. And I really liked it because it required that we think very creatively about how to use this data. Because on its face, it's actually not the first data set I would have turned to to create a country level index. Just the way that it's structured, it's not something that you can just kind of grab and run with. So, you know, country risk is obviously designed that way, banking risk is designed that way, but not the way that we have our trade data structured. So I really appreciate the energy that came out of that workshop and I appreciate that everyone humored me with my post IT notes, but I think that the team really saw, you know, bringing in this, this trade data set as more of a challenge to rise to rather than a barrier to overcome. Cassandra Pagan [00:17:50]: And really in the vein of flipping the script and changing our perspective, I felt like that was very consistent with the approach of the whole project and I really enjoyed it because I learned so much about types of insight that we can derive from trade data. There's a lot of questions you can ask of trade data about, you know, where things are lacking, where things are in abundance and you can think really creatively about how to turn that into proxy measures and derive really interesting insights from. From that trade in so many levels. Right. Like the trade data is incredibly rich. So I would have to say it's not my favorite child, but it was the child that I was the most interested to learn about at the time. So yeah. And I. Cassandra Pagan [00:18:27]: And honestly, I think it was one of the things that was very timely given everything that's going on in the world. So being able to integrate the trade data into the model was, was probably the most fun part for me from a data perspective. Kristin Hallam [00:18:40]: Timely indeed. And speaking of timely, this seems like a good time to bring in Natasha to tell us about a risk focused index, the Trade and Tariff Vulnerability Index. Natasha, what is the Trade and Tariff Vulnerability Index exactly? Natasha McSwiggin [00:18:59]: Yeah, thanks Kristen. So the Trade and Tariff Vulnerability Index, or TTV for short, is essentially a handy tool that we developed to help us identify how at risk different economies are from the reciprocal tariffs that were specifically announced on April 2nd of this year. So the way we constructed the index is that the index looks at three main factors to gauge vulnerability. So the first and the most important factor in the index is the US Tariff rate, adjusted for reliance on exports to the US So essentially if a country is sending a lot of goods that aren't tariff exempt to the US it's more likely to feel the pinch from these tariffs. The second factor that we looked at is the share of good exports to gdp. So countries that are able to stand on their own are less likely to be hit hard compared to those that are really dependent on global trade and to those spillover effects. And the third and final factor, the index looks at the trade balance for the U.S. so essentially this shows how much a country relies on trade with them and highlights its broader economic vulnerability. Natasha McSwiggin [00:20:11]: So essentially the TTV index gives us a clearer picture of how the tariff risks are spread across different markets, which is really useful for making strategic decisions as the US policy evolve over time. Kristin Hallam [00:20:26]: We love talking about decisions on the decisive for sure. So keeping with that avengers analogy that we had earlier, Natasha, what is the origin story of the ttv? Natasha McSwiggin [00:20:40]: Oh yeah, great question. So essentially the TTV index originated from the need to assess global economic risks following the tariffs announced, as I mentioned, on April 2 of this year. Given the uncertainty surrounding near term US trade and tariff policy towards the rest of the world, we built this framework to measure and reassess the impact that these US tariffs may have on our existing country default risk scores or CDR for short, as these tariff rates evolve with a strong focus on the potential short term CDR score impact. So that was our main focus. But fundamentally this index was developed to evaluate how vulnerable different economies are to these tariffs. Kristin Hallam [00:21:24]: So I mean you've, you've just said the index was developed to evaluate how vulnerable the different economies are to the tariffs. But what would, what would you say are the, the use cases for the Trade and Tariff Vulnerability Index? How would businesses use this. Natasha McSwiggin [00:21:42]: Yeah. So essentially, like as I mentioned, the main purpose is to assess the near term vulnerability of these economies to the tariffs, particularly in light of the recent changes in policy and the potential channels through which these tariffs could affect the risk outlook given the policy uncertainty. An important feature that I'd note here with our index is that it has been set up to allow for and to respond to changes in tariff rates. So by evaluating how different economies might be affected by these tariffs, the index provides valuable insights into potential risks and impacts on trade relationships. So as for use, the TT Fee index helps businesses identify which markets may be more susceptible to tariff related disruptions, allowing them to strategize, plan, adjust their operations accordingly. For instance, if we have a company that heavily reliant on exports to the us, they can assess their exposure and consider diversifying their markets to mitigate risks. So essentially, the index serves as a really crucial tool for businesses to measure the impact to the reciprocal tariffs and helps them navigate the complexities of international trade and policy uncertainty. Kristin Hallam [00:23:03]: Thank you, Natasha for that. So, looking ahead, how do you foresee the relationship between the SOI and the TTV Index evolving, especially in light of the ongoing global trade tensions, which I think will be with us for some time? Cassandra Pagan [00:23:24]: Yeah, that's a great question. I've talked a little bit about some of our collaborations across the different parts of the business and this has been one of the more creative and timely collaborations that we've had a chance to work on. And I just want to take a quick second and thank Natasha for her ingenuity and insight while we've been navigating the impact and how all of this works and how all the different pieces come together. Right. So it's just been a joy to get to do this. Justin Valentino [00:23:48]: Absolutely. Could not have done it without Natasha's work as well. Cassandra Pagan [00:23:51]: Yeah. So one of the ways that we're thinking about putting the two pieces together is we're thinking about bringing together the momentum data, which is really kind of, you know, that 10 year trajectory view of how a market has performed. And really, if you think about it, momentum has captured the last 10 years. Right. So this has been a particularly dynamic and intense, I would say, decade. If you look back to 2015 to now, I can't even contemplate what my life was like 10 years ago. That feels like an epoch ago. And really think about how, you know, the story of improvement at the macro level. Cassandra Pagan [00:24:25]: So we have this long term view. Right. And then we're thinking about putting together the ttv, which is this very Timely, very dynamic measure of the vulnerability and like what's going on now. Right. So one of the things that we are thinking about is you want to be operating in a place that is expanding, right. That has this trajectory of momentum, that has the story of growth, but at the same time has lower exposure or vulnerability to what's going on right now. Right. That's kind of the sweet spot. Cassandra Pagan [00:24:57]: So by bringing together these two different measures, we're thinking about how we can identify those markets that are kind of in the area where, where you're expanding and growing, but have the least exposure or vulnerability to what's going on out in the world. And kind of on the flip side, you know, it might make you think twice about markets, if you're thinking about market entry, for example, that have low momentum and high vulnerability to trade and tariff dimensions going on right now. So it's a really interesting juxtaposition of how we're thinking about bringing these two indices together and really marrying the insights to say, you know, from the long term perspective, this is what we're seeing, but from what's going on right now, this is what we think could happen. So we look forward to sharing actually some of this work in an upcoming report that we'll be collaborating altogether, the three of us, and that's going to be available not just to our clients, but also to the public later this month. Natasha McSwiggin [00:25:53]: Yeah, I just wanted to say thanks, Cassie and Justin. It's really exciting to bring the two data sets together. They're so complementary and when we do, they put them together for the report is going to provide some really exciting and timely insights for our clients and like you say, the wider public. Kristin Hallam [00:26:12]: I'm envisioning not to throw another image on the image pile that we've created in this episode, but I'm picturing like a yin and yang symbol of how the two indices kind of can work together or maybe it's more like a Venn diagram where they overlap. And there's that area that you said, Cassie, where there's lower risk but higher opportunity kind of thing. So. Cassandra Pagan [00:26:35]: Well, we're going to take that to the design team when we go to get this published. Thank you. Kristin Hallam [00:26:40]: There you go. There you go. Happy to help in my own small way. So, one last question before we wrap up. I just wanted to ask you if there were any limitations to the Strategic Opportunity Index or any caveats that, you know, our businesses, our clients or our listeners should keep in mind. Justin Valentino [00:27:05]: Well, I mean, I really want to say that our this index child is Perfect. And it can do no wrong. But I think one of the kind of very difficult decisions we had to make early on was going for breadth rather than depth. So the SOI does cover 98 countries and there are so many other datasets that unfortunately had to be left on the cutting room floor. And we would have loved to incorporate and still hope to someday, but during its construction, we were trying to cast as wide of a net as possible to capture all of the market opportunity. Otherwise we may not have found fun use cases like Namibia around that. That being said, with the 98 markets, it still does cover about 98% of global GDP. Hmm. Justin Valentino [00:27:50]: I guess the other caveat is that this model is, was designed to be sector agnostic, but the structure of it, the Lego bricks that we built it out of, does allow it to be kind of easily customizable to different sectors, to different use cases or different policy priorities, like some of the policy priorities that Cassie mentioned earlier for a few of the use cases. Kristin Hallam [00:28:13]: All right, thanks for that, Justin. And with that, it's time for us to wrap up our discussion on the Strategic Opportunity Index and the Trade and Tariff Vulnerability Index. So, any final thoughts? Cassie, how about you? Cassandra Pagan [00:28:32]: Yeah, I just would say, you know, when you're, when you come across all of our work, hopefully soon, just keep in mind it's all relative. So with an index, it's always about thinking about things in context and understanding where you stand next to each other. So when you come across our data, make sure that you understand that it's all about relative measures. None of this is really meant to be absolute, and of course everything is very dynamic, but that's actually what makes it a good measure of competitiveness. Kristin Hallam [00:29:01]: Any other final thoughts? Justin Valentino [00:29:03]: Yeah, I think we're just really excited to kind of finally reveal it to the world. It's something that Cassie and I and Natasha have been working on for the past year, year and a half, really, and just really excited to finally have it up on the big Hollywood sign. Kristin Hallam [00:29:21]: Natasha, how about you? Natasha McSwiggin [00:29:23]: Yeah, absolutely. I'm just excited to get the report out and share it with our clients, share our insights. Kristin Hallam [00:29:30]: Right. And on that note, thank you, Cassandra, Justin and Natasha for taking the time to talk about the indices with us and share your insights. I do want to mention that we have a blog post on our website on the Trade and Tariff Vulnerability Index, and I will include a link to that in the description of this episode. And with that, thanks for listening. Until next time, thank you for listening to the Decisive podcast from SMP Global. Please subscribe and join us for next week's episode. Until then, stay curious and stay informed.