Transition Begins for Turkmenistan Following President's Sudden Death

Turkmenistan's government has announced the death of the country's leader, Saparmurat Niyazov. The sudden departure of the man who has ruled the country since 1985 and created one of the strongest authoritarian regimes in the present-day world throws uncertainty over Turkmenistan and the Central Asia region as a whole.

The country has remained in good order since the announcement, but changes are inevitable and their direction is uncertain.

Contenders for Power

Niyazov left in the style of Communist Party leaders in the Soviet period: without an official successor. In the Soviet time, the new leader was named by the circle of the top party officials, and in most cases appeared at the head of the funeral commission for his predecessor. The Turkmen government abided by the Soviet book: it organised a funeral commission and appointed deputy Prime Minister Gurbangully Berdymukhammedov as its head. Berdymukhammedov represented Turkmenistan at the recent CIS meeting and may well get the upper hand among Niyazov's officials, if he navigates the fact that according to the Constitution, the power has temporarily passed to the speaker of parliament, Ovezdeldy Ataiyev

The government has issued a statement about the preservation of stability and Niyazov's "course of development", which again is in fully in accordance with the Soviet canon.

There are two major differences with the Soviet system, however. The first is that unlike the universal Communist ideology, the ruling ideology in Turkmenistan was strongly personalised around Niyazov, and even if the government continues to profess it, any successor would seem a mere caretaker of Turkmenbashi's (as Niyazov was known) legacy. This would undermine the legitimacy of the new leader, and also place limitations to his own ambitions. The second major difference is that the government officials are not the only contenders for political leadership. The opposition leaders, who are currently in exile, are set to return to the country within days, according to the head of the Republican party Nurmuhammed Khanamov, to demand free elections of the new leader according to democratic principles.

International Concerns

The upcoming power struggles will take place in a country with a very specific political and socio-economic terrain, and under the pressure of external forces. Turkmenistan's development has important implications for the regional and international actors because of security and natural resource considerations.

Security-wise, two of Turkmenistan's neighbours are some of the most disruptive countries in the world: Afghanistan and Iran (its other neighbours are Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan). With Kyrgyzstan's government in limbo following this week's resignations, instability in yet another Central Asian state is likely to augment illegal trafficking of drugs and migrants in the region, as well as make it more susceptible to terrorist activities.

No less important than security concerns is the fact that Turkmenistan has the fourth largest reserves of natural gas in the world, as well as substantial oil resources. The large majority of Turkmenistan's gas pipelines belong to the Russian company Gazprom, which had cut a favourable deal with Niyazov, and now may face the prospect of re-negotiation. The vice-speaker of the Russian parliament Vladimir Pekhtin has regretted the loss of Niyazov, commenting that Russia-Turkmenistan relations under him were "excellent". The Russian government, as well as other major institutional and business actors involved in natural resource exploration, will seek to ensure a favourable attitude from the new Turkmenistan leader.

Niyazov's Legacies

Domestically, the emergence and success of the new Turkmen leadership will be affected by three important outcomes of Niyazov's rule. Firstly, the society is strongly susceptible to ideological propaganda. Although the ruling ideology under Niyazov, laid out in the book "Ruchnama", was civic, the great strength of state propaganda nevertheless made people highly responsive to ideological teachings. Radical fundamentalist ideas may get a favourable hearing in this country where the majority of the population formally espouse Islam. Secondly, the society is highly marginalised, as Niyazov managed to break down the clan structures that are typical across other Central Asian states. There are few organised interest groups and little diversity of allegiances, so whoever gets the upper hand at leadership will face little criticism or opposition. Thirdly, Turkmenistan's population is extremely poor, with the unofficial unemployment rate reported at 82%, and will thus be susceptible to incitements to violence and disorder. The ideologically susceptible, marginalised and poor society is looking for a new leader, and the direction of the country's development will very much depend on the personal agenda and preferences of the new president.

Outlook and Implications

With Niyazov gone, one of the most idiosyncratic and oppressive regimes of the modern world departs into history. It was too focused on the leader and too strongly driven by his personal wishes to be sustained. In the ensuing months and years, Turkmenistan will be inundated with envoys of all kinds of teachings, from human rights activists to religious fundamentalists. Under favourable conditions, it would take five to ten years for a meaningful social diversity and stratification to emerge, which could then form the basis for a democratic regime. The Turkmen elites, as well as some international players, however, may not wish for democracy in the state. While this may bring temporary stability in terms of security and energy resources exploration, it would keep Turkmenistan highly inflammatory and susceptible to social disorder and unrest. Niyazov's departure has finally pushed Turkmenistan into transition. It will take another five years to really see what direction the transition will take.