Global Insight Perspective | |
Significance | Musharraf’s resignation as army chief marks an end to eight years of military rule in Pakistan, meeting one of the key conditions of the international community and local opposition groups for allowing Musharraf’s continued rule. |
Implications | Musharraf’s new role as civilian president will decentralise power, along with the return of Nawaz Sharif and Benazir Bhutto and Kiyani becoming chief of army staff (COAS). This may slow the decision-making process, although it will also add checks and balances and create a viable secular alternative to Musharraf’s rule in Pakistan. |
Outlook | The move is a step toward normality. However, the extent to which Pakistan’s political situation stabilises over the next few months depends on an end to emergency rule, the release of activists that have been detained since the emergency was imposed and whether fair and open parliamentary elections are conducted on 8 January. |
Return to a Semblance of Normality
Pervez Musharraf was sworn in today for a second five-year term as president, and his first as a civilian. In a speech after the ceremony in Islamabad he referred to the day’s events as a "milestone in the transition of Pakistan to a complete essence of democracy". As he spoke clashes erupted in Lahore between police and hundreds of lawyers protesting against Musharraf's swearing in as president, the state of emergency and the treatment of the judiciary. Musharraf will make a televised address tonight at 8:00 pm (1500 GMT).
This followed Musharraf’s resignation as Chief of Army Staff (COAS) yesterday, marking an end to Pakistan’s fourth period under military rule in its 60-year history, and the second-longest after that of the late Zia ul-Haq. Musharraf seized power in a bloodless coup in 1999 from former prime minister Nawaz Sharif.
Musharraf's position was undermined in March when he attempted to remove Chief Justice Iftikhar Muhammad Chaudhry, who was reinstated in July and finally removed following the state of emergency on 3 November. The state of emergency was declared on the grounds of clamping down on Islamic militancy and an activist judiciary, but was used to purge the Supreme Court, which last week dropped all six petitions against his victory in the 6 October presidential election (see Pakistan: 22 November 2007: Last Legal Challenge to Pakistani President's Re-Election Cleared).
Parliamentary elections have been set for 8 January and Musharraf has vowed that they will take place "come hell or high water". Government officials have also noted that he is keen to end emergency rule before the January elections. The government has released close to 6,000 lawyers, political workers and human rights activists arrested since the declaration of emergency rule. This is a key condition of the international community, reflected in Pakistan’s suspension from the Commonwealth last week and in statements from the U.S. government, which has provided Pakistan with $10 billion in aid since 2001 (see Pakistan: 23 November 2007: Commonwealth Suspends Pakistan, Adding to Pressures on President Musharraf ). The United States continues to view Musharraf as a "reliable partner", providing vital endorsement of his presidency, although it noted that while President Musharraf's resignation as army chief was a “good first step” further progress was required
Return of the Secular Opposition
The return of Benazir Bhutto (Pakistan People's Party or PPP) and Nawaz Sharif (Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz or PML (N)) has led to a re-emergence of the secular opposition in Pakistan (see Pakistan: 26 November 2007: Former PM's Return May Complicate Political Outlook for Pakistan's President). Until recently both parties were marginalised by an alliance between Musharraf’s party, the Pakistan Muslim League-Quaid-e-Azam (PML-Q), and Islamist parties such as the six party Mutahidda Majlis-e Amal (MMA) and the Mutahidda Qaumi Movement (MQM). They were also hindered by the exile of both Sharif and Bhutto as a result of corruption charges, which have been shelved for the time being. Both parties have opposed Musharraf’s rule as president on the grounds that he was re-elected by the outgoing parliament while he retained the dual position of president and army chief.
The two main secular opposition leaders are yet to confirm whether they will boycott the parliamentary elections on 8 January, which is likely if emergency rule is not lifted, although both have filed their nomination papers for the general elections. The former foes are also discussing a potential joint opposition to Musharraf. The All-Parties Democratic Movement, which comprises approximately 30 opposition parties including Nawaz Sharif’s PML (N), Imran Khan’s Tehreek-e-Insaf and the Islamist MMA (but not Bhutto’s PPP) will be meeting today to discuss whether to participate in the elections. Sharif is a religious conservative while Bhutto, a moderate secularist, was negotiating a power sharing arrangement with Musharraf until the declaration of emergency rule on 3 November. Under the present constitutional arrangements both are barred from serving a third term as prime minister, and this can only be amended by a two-thirds majority vote in the parliament.
Progress in Battling Insurgents
The appointment of the pro-Western General Ashfaq Kiyani, former chief of the Inter-Services Intelligence agency, to the position of COAS, along with the separation of the roles of president and army chief, will allow the military to concentrate on clamping down on Islamic insurgents. Additionally, Kiyani’s former roles as deputy military secretary to Bhutto and as mediator between Musharraf and Bhutto during discussions for a power sharing arrangement suggests that he can play an effective balancing role as mediator between Musharraf, the military and the political parties.
There has reportedly been some progress in combating Islamic extremism in recent days, with the Pakistani military retaking sections of the Swat Valley in the North-West Frontier Province, including Imam Dheri, which was the base of operations for hardline cleric Maulana Fazlullah. Fazlullah, whose whereabouts remain unknown, also had his radio station shut down. The station had earned him the name “Mullah Radio” and had been used to call for holy war (see Pakistan: 27 November 2007: Military Retakes Strategic Peak from Pro-Taliban Rebels in Pakistan). Nonetheless, Pakistan suffered another major terrorist attack over the weekend with twin suicide bombings in Rawalpindi, highlighting the still-volatile state of the security environment.
Outlook and Implications
Pakistan is at a turning point. The stability of the next phase in Pakistan’s political history depends on Musharraf’s relationship with the new army chief, as well as the strength and role of the opposition parties in an increasingly active parliament. At least publicly, Pakistan’s power base is no longer concentrated with Musharraf, although he retains the power to dismiss the government. With power now divided between Musharraf as president, Kiyani as army chief and the returning Bhutto and Sharif, there is likely to be an escalation in friction between the secular parties, between the secular and Islamist parties and between Musharraf, the military and political parties, as all sides jockey for leadership.
The fact that power is no longer concentrated in the hands of Musharraf is likely to slow down the decision-making process, especially if there is joint PPP-PML (N) opposition to Musharraf’s rule. Musharraf will attempt to prevent such a coalition—which could impeach him for having imposed the state of emergency—by dividing the opposition and forming a power-sharing arrangement with either Bhutto or the religious parties. The configuration of alliances could comprise Bhutto and Sharif against Musharraf, or Bhutto with Musharraf and Sharif with the Islamist parties, and will determine the nature of the rivalry over the next few months. A hung parliament is the most likely outcome for the January elections.
It is still not clear when Musharraf will cancel the state of emergency, although with parliamentary elections only five weeks away it will have to be done soon for the elections to be considered credible. Pakistan's perceived effectiveness in combating Islamic extremism under a division of civilian and military rule will determine the continuation of U.S. support for the Pakistani government. Under Kiyani, the military will remain committed to the War on Terror, although a new prime minister and parliament may slow the decision-making process. Nonetheless, the separation of powers and the gradual withdrawal of the military from the political process is a necessary condition for Pakistan’s transition to stability. Prior to the diversification of power, the abrupt removal of Musharraf in the absence of a credible alternative would have created a power vacuum in Pakistan.