Global Insight Perspective | |
Significance | This is among the largest of the recent terrorist attacks in the north-east Indian state, which has been plagued by a three-decade insurgency. |
Implications | There is a need to address the grievances driving the instabilities in the insurgency-infested north-east, which range from thegovernment's anti-terrorism legislation, to the inflow of Bihari and Bengali migrants, the lack of economic opportunities, and demands of separatism and redrawing borders by the states' conflicting ethnic groups. |
Outlook | Allegations that the Indian National Congress (INC)-led United Progressive Alliance (UPA) government has been lax on security are likely to grow following the string of recent high-profile attacks, which does not bode well for the Congress Party ahead of a string of state elections before a national-level parliamentary election by May 2009. |
Some 13 bomb blasts within a span of one hour in the north-east Indian state of Assam left at least 48 people dead and over 200 injured today. Four bombs exploded in the state capital Guwahati, leaving at least 25 people dead, while the remaining bombs exploded in the surrounding districts of Barpeta, Kokrajhar and Bongaigaon. Another three bombs exploded in Korahhar District, leaving 11 people dead while three bombs exploded in Barpeta District, killing 12 people, and one bomb exploded in Bongaigaon District. Most of the bomb attacks occurred in the vicinity of crowded marketplaces, including near the Guwahati District Magistrate's Court, the chief minister’s residence, the state assembly, as well as police stations.
A curfew was imposed in Guwahati as riots erupted following the attacks as demonstrators, angered by the lax security across the state, attacked police vehicles and public buses leading to dozens of injuries. The state has been placed on alert while India’s Home Ministry has called an emergency meeting. No one has claimed responsibility for the attacks although police suspect militants from the United Liberation Front of Assam (ULFA) or Bangladesh-based Harkat-ul-Jihad-al-Islami (HUJI) to be involved.
Outlook and Implications
Possible Perpetrators
These latest attacks come after a string of multiple bomb attacks on major cities across India, the last of which occurred in the capital New Delhi in September (see India: 15 September 2008: Multiple Bomb Blasts Hit Indian Capital). Those attacks have been attributed to a new home-grown Islamic extremist group calling itself the Indian Mujahedeen, which may share links with the proscribed Students’ Islamic Movement of India (SIMI) and foreign terrorist groups such as the Pakistan-based Lashkar-e-Taiba and Jaish-e-Mohammed, and Bangladesh-based HUJI. While it is not possible to rule out the involvement of the Indian Mujahedeen in this latest attack, it is more likely that it was carried out by one of the numerous insurgent groups operating in the insurgency-infested states of northeast India where more than 50,000 people have died since 1947. In recent years Assam has borne the brunt of insurgent attacks in the seven states (known as the "seven sisters") of the northeast, with more than 10,000 people killed in a three-decade insurgency in the state. The most prominent of the groups operating in the state is ULFA, which has led a separatist struggle since 1979 with attacks on government and security personnel, migrant workers, cinema halls screening Hindi films and transport and energy infrastructure aimed at disconnecting the state from the rest of the country. The government’s peace talks with the group broke down in 2006 while popular support for the group has weakened following a string of attacks on public places that have claimed high civilian casualties. A recent survey by a civil society group, Assam Public Works, noted that more than 95% of the population of the state opposes ULFA’s demand for independence. A high turn-out for state elections in the northeast earlier this year also confirms declining support for separatism in the region (see India: 6 March 2008: State Elections in India’s Insurgency-Infested North-East Record Strong Turnout).
Grievances in the "Seven Sisters"
Demands of insurgent groups operating in this region range from the government’s anti-terrorism legislation, to the inflow of Bihari and Bengali migrants, the lack of economic opportunities, and demands of separatism and redrawing borders by the states' conflicting ethnic groups. A quarter of Assam’s 26 million population are comprised of non-Assamese, including 800,000 people from the eastern state of Bihar. Tensions have also arisen between the predominantly Christian Bodo tribal people in the state and non-indigenous Muslim migrants from Bangladesh (see India: 6 October 2008: Religious Violence Plagues North-East Indian State of Assam, Curfew Imposed in Kashmir). This has highlighted tensions between promoting a mobile population that facilitates economic development and addressing the grievances of marginalised indigenous populations. The government has adopted a carrot-and-stick approach in dealing with the insurgencies by stepping up its security presence in the region while negotiating with groups that cease violence and offering economic incentives.
Allegations that the Indian National Congress (INC)-led United Progressive Alliance (UPA) government has been lax on security are likely to grow following the string of recent high-profile attacks (see India: 1 May 2008: India Identified Among Most Vulnerable to Terrorism in U.S. Report). Notably, the UPA government repealed the Prevention of Terrorism Act (POTA) in 2004, which was introduced by the previous Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP)-led government. This does not bode well for the Congress Party ahead of a string of state elections before a national-level parliamentary election by May 2009 (see India: 14 October 2008: Election 2008: Dates Announced for Five State Elections in India).
Strategic Importance of the Northeast
Security concerns in India have traditionally focussed on bilateral tensions between India and Pakistan over the disputed territory of Kashmir, a communist Naxalite insurgency across central and eastern India, and a nascent but growing indigenous Islamic extremist movement. However, while the violence in the northeast has traditionally been on a lower scale, the region is of significant strategic and economic importance. In addition to attempting to quell insurgencies in the region, the Indian government’s interest in the northeast has been driven by the region’s rich tea, timber and natural gas reserves. The region also borders Myanmar and China and as such has the potential to emerge as a direct overland trade and transport route to the markets and resources of Southeast and East Asia, as part of India’s "Look East" policy. Notably, in April India pledged to invest US$130 million in the Kaladan multi-modal transit project, which will connect India's northeast with the Sittwe port on the Bay of Bengal(see India - Myanmar: 3 April 2008: Transport Corridor Pact Signed Between India and Myanmar). Finally, the state of Assam borders the north-east Indian state of Arunachal Pradesh, which is a disputed territory between India and China where India has attempted to strengthen its claim through numerous development initiatives and infrastructure projects (see India: 1 February 2008: Indian PM Unveils Development Package for Disputed North-Eastern State of Arunachal Pradesh).