Shell earnings preview: Q3 2026

Shell PLC (LSE: SHEL) is scheduled to report its Q3 2026 earnings on Thursday, October 29, following its Q3 production update earlier this month. The European energy giant is expected to report a strong quarter, according to Visible Alpha consensus, supported by higher year-on-year commodity prices and resilient Downstream performance.

Consensus calls for Downstream revenue of $73.64 billion, a 50.1% increase year-on-year, and Upstream & integrated gas revenue of $27.72 billion, up 25.2%. Diluted operating EPS is forecast at $1.82, a 97.7% increase from Q3 2025, with estimates ranging from $1.64 to $1.99.

Consensus expectations have generally strengthened. Current estimates are up 21.4% for Downstream revenue, 12.8% for Upstream revenue and 18.3% for EPS versus July 30. EPS expectations are also 114.7% above the January 2 level, while the three-year EPS CAGR for FY2025-FY2028 increased to 16% from 14% last quarter. Revenue CAGRs have improved to 9.1% for Downstream and 4.6% for Upstream.

Refining margins are expected to rise to $40 per barrel in Q3, a significant increase from $24 a barrel in the previous quarter and $12 a barrel last year.

The main earnings support is expected to be the stronger commodity-price backdrop versus Q3 2025, with Brent crude averaging $94 per barrel in the third quarter, compared with $69 per barrel a year ago. There has been a a sequential decline from $104 per barrel.

Upstream production may be a concern, consensus shows, with output expected to average 2.53 million barrels of oil equivalent per day, down 8.6% year-on-year. Crude oil and NGL volume per day is forecast 7.1% lower for the quarter, while natural gas volume per day is estimated to be down 10.5%.

Downstream throughput is set to rise 3.5% year-on-year to 1,217 thousand barrels per day. A 4% decline from the previous quarter is anticipated.

Based on consensus, profitability is expected to remain strongest in Downstream, with operating net income of $4.82 billion in Q3 2026, compared with $1.87 billion in Q3 2025 and $4.21 billion in Q2 2026. Upstream operating net income is projected at $2.99 billion for the quarter, well above the prior-year period, but below Q2’s $3.49 billion. Integrated gas operating net income is projected at $2.92 billion, up 36.1% year-on-year and 8% sequentially.

Shell’s renewables segment, while smaller, is expected to see revenue rise to $11.13 billion, up 13.7% year-on-year and about 4.1% sequentially. Segment operating income is forecast at $145 million in Q3, compared with $92 million a year ago and $79 million in the previous quarter, signaling a return to stronger profitability.

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