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This guide highlights the key performance indicators for the Oil & Gas Refining and Marketing industry and where investors should look to find an investment edge.
The oil and natural gas industry is often divided into three segments; upstream or the business of oil and gas exploration and production; midstream, which includes transportation and storage; and, downstream, which comprises refining and marketing. In this guide, we primarily focus on the downstream segment of the energy sector’s value chain. For information on the upstream segment, please refer to our guide on Upstream Oil & Gas KPIs.
Downstream operations involve refining and marketing crude oil. Refining is what gives crude oil its value. Refineries take raw crude oil (such as WTI and Brent) and refine it into usable fuels and other petroleum products such as gasoline, jet fuel, kerosene, and diesel, among others. That puts refining companies in the last link of the oil and gas industry’s three-part value chain. The petroleum products created through the refining process are used for a variety of purposes such as residential and commercial heating, fuel for vehicles, generating electricity, and for petrochemical products among others.
The refining process involves three basic functions; distillation, conversion, and blending. The first and most basic step of refining is distillation, which involves the separation of materials based on differences in their volatility. Next is conversion involving breaking up heavy molecules into lighter (and more valuable) hydrocarbons. And lastly, blending, which involves mixing the optimal combination of components to produce the final finished product. Refineries that process crude oil can be either simple refineries or complex refineries, depending on the complexity of processing the crude oil. Simple refineries mainly execute the distillation process, whereas complex refineries perform two additional functions, namely; conversion or cracking, and blending.
Marketing refers to the wholesale and retail distribution and sale of refined petroleum products to businesses, industries, governments, and end consumers. The addition of marketing assets to a refinery portfolio generally creates a more stable, higher-margin income stream than can be achieved through independent refining operations alone.
The refining industry is a global and highly cyclical commodity business in which profitability is sensitive to marginal changes in product supply and demand. Marketing, on the other hand, is more regional and generates fairly steady cash flows. They do, however, exhibit some volatility but on a short-term basis when oil prices move up or down, in a short period.
Key performance indicators (KPIs) are the most important business metrics for a particular industry. When understanding market expectations for the Oil & Gas Refining and Marketing industry, whether at a company or industry level, some KPIs to consider include:
Refining
Marketing
Oil refinery companies buy raw crude oil from upstream or oil-producing companies and have it shipped to their refineries via pipelines, trucks, or railroads. These refineries then process the crude oil into refined products such as gasoline, diesel, jet fuel, kerosene, among others. One barrel equals 42 gallons of crude oil, which typically produces about 45 gallons of petroleum products because of refinery processing gains. The largest finished product is gasoline, at 19 gallons from each barrel of crude oil. Once processed, refiners sell these refined products to end-users, including at their own branded gas stations.
Oil refining companies generate revenue from the difference between how much they pay to buy raw crude oil versus how much they make when selling the finished refined petroleum products. Crack spread is the difference between wholesale petroleum product prices and crude oil prices. This spread fluctuates with the price of oil and with the demand for refined products.
Refinery capacity is the maximum amount of raw crude oil that can flow into a distillation unit of a refinery.
Refinery utilization refers to the ratio of the total amount of crude oil that runs through the distillation unit to its total capacity. When analyzing refining companies, if the crack spreads are healthy, analysts look for high utilization ratios and capacity of the company’s refineries.
Refinery yield is the percentage of finished products produced from the input of crude oil and the net input of unfinished oils. Refinery yield helps analysts assess the breakdown of petroleum products coming from crude or unfinished oils. Refiners can adjust product yields in response to changing product prices and other market conditions by varying the number of refinery process units used and the type of crude oil used.
Refinery production is the actual production of refined petroleum products at a refinery.
Revenue per barrel is the blended price for all petroleum products produced after refining the raw crude oil. Refinery volume (capacity, throughput, yield sold) is measured in barrels and barrels per day, where one barrel equals 42 gallons of crude oil.
The main indicator of profitability for a refining company is the gross refining margin (GRM). It represents the difference between the total revenue generated from selling petroleum products refined at an oil refinery and the cost of the feedstock (input) which is primarily raw crude oil, sometimes called the product’s ‘crack’.
Refining margin excludes depreciation, hence positive refining margins may not always mean profits at a net income level. Refining margins are calculated on a per-barrel basis. They can be calculated in many ways, depending on the underlying benchmark crude oil and its yield. A barrel of crude, when processed chemically, produces a variety of end products like petrol, diesel, LPG (liquefied petroleum gas), and furnace oil, each having different applications. The price of each of these products is different. The GRM for a refinery is higher if it produces more high-value products such as LPG, petrol, and naphtha. Further, each refinery has a unique gross margin varying depending on its location, configuration, and type of crude oil processed.
A combination of factors may drive margins which include changes in oil prices, oil supply (relative to light/heavy crude oil), oil demand, refining capacity additions, maintenance/outages, inventory levels, and regulatory developments.
A proxy for short-term gross margins is simplified crack spread. Crack spreads compare the cost of crude oil inputs to the wholesale or spot prices of the outputs (excluding variable or fixed costs). One of the most well-known crack spreads is the NYMEX 3:2:1, which approximates the product yield at a refinery as: for every three barrels of crude oil, a refinery processes two barrels of gasoline and one barrel of distillate fuel. This spread is purely notional and not representative of any specific refinery or location. Below is an illustration of a 3:2:1 crack spread calculation:
Gross refining margin benchmarks are the barometer of demand-supply economics, separate from the effects of operational performance. The other factor that affects the GRM is the value of “fuel & losses” oil used up in running the refinery or lost from the system.
The spread of products is the biggest driver of refinery profitability on a cash basis with other costs being a small component of operating profits. The set-up cost for a refinery determines the non-cash cost i.e. depreciation. The add-on units in a refinery determine the set-up cost. Refineries with different types of processing units can produce very similar products but with different costs. The level of refinery operating costs is directly related to the complexity of the refining process and the size of the refinery. The size of the refinery will decide the fixed per-barrel costs. Refinery costs generally fall into one of three categories:
Visible Alpha offers Oil & Gas Refining and Marketing-related comp tables, comparing forecasts for key financial and operating metrics, to make it easy to quickly conduct relative analysis, whether you are interested in looking at key values for ExxonMobil, Valero Energy Corp, Total Energies, or Sinopec. Every pre-built, customizable comp table is based on region, sub-industry, or key operating metrics.
This guide highlights the key performance indicators for the oil & gas refining & marketing industry and where investors should look to find an investment edge, including: