CDSL is set for robust revenue and earnings growth in fiscal 2027

Central Depository Services (India) Ltd. is poised for a sharp acceleration in growth from fiscal 2027, as India's capital markets continue to expand and retail participation deepens. According to Visible Alpha consensus, the total revenue of Central Depository Services (CDSL) is forecast to rise 16.1% to 14.2 billion Indian rupees in fiscal 2027, a marked improvement from the 3.3% growth in fiscal 2026. Analysts anticipate a compound annual growth rate of 15.3% in revenue between 2027 and 2030. Analysts see a strong IPO pipeline, structural shift in savings behavior and operating leverage as key drivers of growth.

The company's revenue mix reflects this momentum. Revenue from operations is projected to climb 14.5% to 13.1 billion rupees in fiscal 2027. Annual issuer charges, CDSL's largest revenue stream, are expected to grow 15.3% to 5.3 billion rupees, driven by an expanding folio base.

Transaction charges are set to increase 18.4% to 2.8 billion rupees, while IPO and corporate-action charges are forecast to rise 15.1% to 1.8 billion rupees, reflecting continued buoyancy in primary market activity.

Online data charges are forecast to grow 12% to 1.7 billion rupees, electronic consolidated account statement and beneficial owner statement charges are expected to rise 21.4% to 609 million rupees, and e-voting charges are projected to increase 17.5% to 438 million rupees.

Beyond its core business, insurance repository charges, though small, are expected to surge 140% to 22.6 million rupees in fiscal 2027. User facility, settlement and account maintenance charges are also forecast to continue their upward trajectory.

This broad-based revenue growth is expected to translate into stronger earnings. EBITDA is forecast to rise 15.6% to 6.8 billion rupees, while net profit attributable to shareholders is projected to increase 18.7% to 5.4 billion rupees in fiscal 2027. Diluted earnings per share are expected to reach 25.90 rupees, up from 21.77 rupees in fiscal 2026, with a dividend-per-share forecast of 15.96 rupees. Capital efficiency is also set to improve, with return on assets projected to rise 158 basis points to 21.45% and return on equity to increase 183 basis points to 26.35%.

CDSL is scheduled to report its fiscal second-quarter 2027 results on Oct. 31. Analysts expect revenue for the quarter to reach 3.6 billion rupees, up 5.8% year over year, with revenue from operations growing 6.6% to 3.4 billion rupees. Diluted earnings per share are projected to rise 26.8% year over year to 8.51 rupees for the quarter.

CDSL shares declined more sharply than the broader Indian market over the past year, falling 28%, compared to declines of 12.7% in the SENSEX and 11.8% in the NIFTY 50.

This article was published by Visible Alpha, part of S&P Global Market Intelligence and not by S&P Global Ratings, which is a separately managed division of S&P Global.