BP earnings preview: Q3 2026

BP PLC (NYSE: BP) is scheduled to report its third-quarter results on Friday, Oct. 30, with Visible Alpha consensus pointing to another strong quarter.

Earlier this month, the oil and gas exploration company updated its expectations for the third quarter of 2026, pointing to stronger underlying earnings, led by improved refining margins and gas trading, stable upstream production, and sharply lower net debt, partly offset by weaker customer and oil-production results and significant transition-related impairments.

Visible Alpha consensus expects third-quarter total revenue of $69.36 billion, up 40.8% from the year-ago quarter. The range of forecasts is wide, indicating some uncertainty around price and volume dynamics. Upstream revenue is projected to climb 28.1% to $20.40 billion.

Brent crude is estimated to average $93 per barrel in the third quarter, softening sequentially from $104 per barrel last quarter, but far above the $69 per barrel level a year ago.

Analysts expect diluted operating earnings per share to reach 47 cents, a year-over-year increase of 233%. The consensus EPS estimate for the quarter has been revised 40.8% higher over the last 30 days to the current level.

Analysts expect the refining indicator margin to jump to $46.73 per barrel, up from $29.60 in the second quarter.

Despite the price tailwind, BP's upstream production is expected to average 2.21 million barrels of oil equivalent per day in Q3, down 6.5% year over year and largely unchanged from the second quarter. Refinery throughput is forecast to show a steeper decline, falling 8.7% year over year to 1.39 million barrels per day in Q3, and down 6% sequentially.

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