Memory prices set to propel Nanya into a new earnings cycle

Nanya Technology Corp. (TWSE: 2408) is poised for a sharp acceleration in 2026 as a tightening DRAM market sends memory prices sharply higher. Visible Alpha consensus shows analysts expects revenue at the Taiwanese chipmaker to rise more than fivefold to NT$371.7 billion in 2026, from NT$66.9 billion last year.

The gains are expected to come overwhelmingly from pricing rather than volumes. Consensus puts Nanya’s average selling price per 1GB equivalent at NT$58 in 2026, up 357% from NT$13 a year earlier. Bit shipments are forecast to rise 23% to 6,440, highlighting the extent to which higher prices, rather than increased output, are driving the recovery.

The backdrop is a supply-constrained DRAM market, with major memory makers directing capacity towards higher-end products used in AI servers while limiting additions to conventional DRAM supply. Nanya itself said in January that capacity constraints could keep supplies of several DRAM products tight through 2026, as demand from AI cloud servers and conventional servers continues to grow.

The pricing surge is flowing rapidly through Nanya’s earnings. Analysts expects gross profit to reach NT$295.3 billion in 2026, compared with NT$15 billion in 2025, while EBITDA is forecast at NT$294.8 billion, up from NT$20 billion.

With AI infrastructure driving demand and limited new DRAM capacity coming on stream, the key question is how long the pricing cycle can persist. Nanya plans to invest more than NT$200 billion in 2027 as it prepares a new fab, but that capacity is not expected to begin production until 2028, leaving the near-term earnings outlook heavily exposed to memory prices.

Nanya is set to report third-quarter fiscal 2026 earnings on Monday, October 12.

This article was published by Visible Alpha, part of S&P Global Market Intelligence and not by S&P Global Ratings, which is a separately managed division of S&P Global.