SpaceX postQ: AI growth drives earnings beat as capex expectations surge

Space Exploration Technologies Corp. (NASDAQ: SPCX) delivered a strong second quarter in its first earnings report as a public company, beating Visible Alpha consensus expectations on revenue and profitability as AI emerged as its fastest-growing business. The results prompted sharp upward revisions to forward earnings estimates, alongside a significant increase in expected CapEx spending.

Looking at earnings summaries compiled by S&P Global Pronto NLP, together with Visible Alpha pre-quarter consensus expectations and revised outlook, here are the key takeaways.

Key takeaways

Q2 revenue rose 91.9% year-over-year to $7.8 billion, 14.6% above Visible Alpha consensus estimates, while gross profit of $4.3 billion beat consensus by 17.6%. The company reported a net loss of $541 million, significantly narrower than the $2.12 billion that analysts expected, with diluted EPS of -$0.09 beating consensus by 41.2%.

AI is driving the growth story. AI revenue rose 247.5% year-over-year to $2.6 billion, beating consensus by 27%. AI growth, however, is coming with substantially higher investment. AI capex reached $15.8 billion in Q2, 47.5% above expectations.

Starlink continues to show strong monetization. Connectivity revenue rose 65.8% to $4.3 billion, 9% above consensus. Net subscriber additions missed consensus by 4.2%, but ARPU came in 0.9% ahead. Starlink capex was 33.9% below consensus.

Launch revenue beat despite lower volume. Space revenue rose 29% to $962 million, 11.2% above consensus, with revenue per launch coming in 14.2% ahead of expectations. Space capex was 7.5% below expectations.

Guidance

SpaceX did not provide formal Q3 or FY2026 guidance but reiterated its target of reaching a $100 billion annualized revenue run rate by year-end. Management expects AI cloud services to remain the largest contributor to near-term growth, while Starlink enterprise, next-generation satellites and higher launch cadence provide additional growth avenues.

Management is targeting up to 20 GW of AI power and cooling capacity by the end of 2027, with approximately 15 GW viewed as a more realistic outcome.

Consensus revisions

The post-quarter revisions indicate that analysts have become more constructive on SpaceX's growth and profitability outlook, while also factoring in a substantially higher level of investment.

Visible Alpha consensus shows analysts now project Q3 revenue of $13 billion, 4.8% above preQ estimates, while FY2026 revenue expectations have risen 14.3% to $45.9 billion. Gross profit estimates are up 4.4% for Q3 and 16.3% for FY2026. Q3 net income expectations have increased 55.3% and FY2026 consensus has shifted from a $1.5 billion loss to a $3.1 billion profit. Q3 diluted EPS expectations have increased 59.6% to $0.18, while FY2026 EPS has moved from -$0.30 to $0.02.

AI accounts for the bulk of the upward revisions. AI revenue estimates have increased 4.5% for Q3 and 25.1% for FY2026. At the same time, AI capex expectations have risen 55.2% for Q3 and 39.3% for FY2026, pushing total company capex forecasts higher.

Starlink estimates have also moved higher, with revenue expectations up 5.3% for Q3 and 5.7% for FY2026. In comparison, Space revenue expectations have increased more modestly, with Q3 and FY2026 estimates up 2.5% and 4.6%, respectively.

Share price reaction 

SpaceX tumbled 14% following its earnings report due to heavy AI infrastructure spending, but have shares recently rebounded as a massive 911.5 million share insider lockup expired without causing a sell-off crash.

This article was published by S&P Global Market Intelligence and not by S&P Global Ratings, which is a separately managed division of S&P Global.