SpaceX earnings preview: Q2 2026

According to Visible Alpha consensus, Space Exploration Technologies Corp.'s (NASDAQ: SPCX) total revenues expected for Q2 2026 are $6.9 billion, driven by growth in the Connectivity segment. In contrast, the Q2 consensus expectations for operating income and EPS are more muted, due to higher expenses in the AI and Space segments. The strong SpaceX Connectivity margin is the key profitability driver, as the other segments scale. Q2 Connectivity margin is expected at 35.9%, offsetting operating losses in the Space and AI segments. There are differing assumptions around costs, leading the SpaceX EPS to range from a negative $1.26/share to positive .33/share, making earnings-related valuation challenging. Looking ahead to Q3 2026, analysts expect the Connectivity business to grow revenue year-over-year over 50% to $4.7 billion and to deliver a 37.5% operating profit margin, up over 150 bps from last quarter. It will be interesting to assess the overall Connectivity segment performance in Q2 and to hear what SpaceX says about the outlook.

Longer term, analysts are also split in their views. For the Connectivity business, Visible Alpha consensus expects the operating profit margin to jump to 43.1% in FY 2027. In addition, Space and AI operating profit estimates for FY 2027 are expected to turn positive and support earnings growth. Currently, the total operating profit margin is expected to increase to go from 6.8% this year to 20.5% next year, driven by margin expansion in all three segments.

We are closely watching what the company will say about its CapEx investments into all of its segments, as SpaceX’s CapEx numbers are expected to increase from $48.7 billion this year to $118.4 in FY 2028. According to consensus projections, Connectivity CapEx estimates are projected to surge 5x from $4.2 billion in FY 2025 to $20.8 billion in FY 2028. In addition, SpaceX’s overall debt is also projected to grow over 5x from $41.7 billion this year to over $218.0 billion in FY 2028.

SpaceX stock has declined 29.5% since the June IPO, significantly underperforming the S&P 500. The stock seems to be far from its consensus target price of $293 with a current implied return of 153%. The weakness has been partially driven by concerns about overgrowth around AI and Data Centers. There is increasing concern in the market that AI infrastructure investments will not be able to generate a return in line with the level of cash needed.

Could the Q2 release provide more visibility into the trajectory of 2026 investments and profitability and give shares a boost?