AI-driven NAND pricing surge set to fuel Kioxia's growth

Japanese memory chipmaker Kioxia Holdings Corp. (TSE: 285A) is expected to deliver another strong quarter when it reports first-quarter fiscal 2027 results on July 31, with higher NAND flash memory prices and sustained AI-related demand driving a sharp acceleration in growth.

Visible Alpha consensus shows first-quarter revenue of JPY1.8 trillion, up 433% from a year earlier, a significant step up from the 20% decline recorded in Q1 last year. Analysts expect the company's performance to be supported by robust demand for NAND flash memory and enterprise solid-state drives (SSDs), as hyperscale cloud providers continue expanding AI infrastructure.

The rapid expansion of generative AI workloads has reshaped demand across the memory industry, with cloud providers requiring higher-capacity, higher-performance storage to support AI training and inference. Analysts expect favourable supply-demand conditions to persist through FY 2027, supporting higher average selling prices (ASPs), long-term customer agreements and stronger profitability for NAND suppliers such as Kioxia.

Consensus forecasts suggest the momentum will strengthen over the full fiscal year. Analysts expect FY 2027 revenue to rise 319% year-on-year to JPY9.8 trillion, accelerating sharply from the 37% growth in FY 2026. SSD and storage products are expected to remain the company's primary growth engine, with revenue forecast to climb 384% to JPY6.6 trillion, while revenue from smart devices is projected to increase 295% to JPY3 trillion.

The outlook points to pricing, rather than shipment volumes, as the key catalyst for growth. Average selling price per 1GB/8Gb equivalent is expected to rise 255% year-on-year to JPY48 in FY 2027, while bit shipments are forecast to increase a comparatively modest, but still strong 19% to 204.5 billion 1GB/8Gb equivalent units.

This article was published by Visible Alpha, part of S&P Global Market Intelligence and not by S&P Global Ratings, which is a separately managed division of S&P Global.