Week Ahead Economic Preview: Week of 6 April 2026

The following is an extract from S&P Global Market Intelligence’s latest Week Ahead Economic Preview. For the full report, please click on the ‘Download Full Report’ link.

Services PMI surveys and inflation updates in focus

Services PMI data are due in the week ahead to provide a comprehensive initial picture of economic conditions following the outbreak of war in the Middle East, accompanied by March inflation data for the US and mainland China. Central bank watchers will be eyeing the FOMC minutes and rate setter Goolsbee’s speech, as well as a policy meeting in New Zealand

The service sector PMI due in the coming week look set to show an even greater initial hit to economic growth from the war than the manufacturing survey released in the past week, if the earlier flash data are anything to go by. The provisional survey data pointed to consumer services, notably travel and tourism, being hit especially hard by war-related uncertainty and higher fuel costs, with financial services activity also impacted by worries over inflation and higher interest rates.

That’s not to say the effect of the war on manufacturing has not been material: although output growth has proven encouragingly resilient at the global level so far (March’s headline Global Manufacturing PMI fell but was still the second-highest seen over the past 45 months), the survey data point to a likelihood of the manufacturing situation worsening in the coming months as high prices and war-related supply constraints take an increasing toll on demand and production capabilities. Some of the expansion in factory production in March also reflected a short-term boost from safety stock building, as companies grew concerned over future supply availability and rising prices.

The inflation picture also comes more into focus in the coming week amid updated US consumer price inflation updated for March. While the FOMC’s favoured core PCE numbers are also updated, these are only for February whereas the CPI data are available to March, capturing the war impact.

Headline US inflation is expected to have jumped in March according to LSEG polling, rising 0.9% on the month from 0.3% in February, but the core rate is merely expected to have edged up from 0.2% to 0.3%. However, the surveys hint at this rate also picking up in the coming months as fuel, food and supply issues filter through to higher household prices for more goods and services.

Chart of the week: US inflation on the rise

The S&P Global flash PMI surveys showed a steep increase in price pressures among the major developed economies, including the US, which is expected to be reflected in higher US official inflation numbers in the coming week. FOMC minutes and Fed speeches will be scoured for clues as to whether policymakers expect the rise in prices emanating from the war in the Middle East to be transitory or become more persistent.