US-Israel Iran war provokes shipping lane shifts

The US and Israel on Feb. 28 launched a large-scale, coordinated air campaign against Iran, striking a broad range of leadership, military, security and nuclear targets. A forced government change is now a key objective according to S&P Global Market Intelligence country risk analysts.

Global supply networks may feel the impact through a mixture of energy market disruptions, airfreight challenges and container freight shipping network interruptions. In the case of energy, shipping via the Strait of Hormuz needs to continue; flows of LNG may be disrupted as well as crude oil.

Absent an extended closure of the Strait, or the destruction of liquefaction assets, the impact is unlikely to be long term in nature. The Islamic Revolution Guard Corps (IRGC) is likely to expand targeting of critical Gulf energy infrastructure if US and Israeli strikes target Iranian critical national infrastructure and major crude export terminals.

Global air freight networks face challenges from the halt to flights through many of the regional ports, including the hubs of Doha and Dubai. These hubs handle around 2.6 million metric tons and 2.2 million metric tons of airfreight respectively, or around 4.0% of the total global airfreight volumes.

The ability of air freight networks to adapt is partly limited by aircraft flight ranges, though networks can rapidly adapt as was shown during the pandemic.

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Container shipping faces challenges to both local actions in the Strait of Hormuz and the wider region through shipping via the Red Sea.

Local actions in the Strait of Hormuz impact key shipping hubs for container freight, including Jebel Ali in Dubai, as we previously identified at the time of June 2025 conflict.

Container lines are also redirecting shipping away from the Red Sea once more. CMA CGM SA has ordered  all vessels in the Gulf to proceed to shelter and AP Moeller Maersk A/S has rerouted vessels bound for the Red Sea around the Cape.