Summary
The September quarter was split down the middle, with industrial metals prices falling into August on uncertain economic outlooks, before anticipation of US interest rate cuts provided support for both base and precious metals prices as the US dollar weakened. Indeed, the highly awaited US interest rate cut finally materialized in September, while China's subsequent stimulus announcement boosted sentiment further at the end of the quarter.
Intensifying geopolitics and robust demand driven by investors' flight to safety helped push gold prices to record levels but slowing energy transition efforts and uncertainty over global economic conditions have tempered demand expectations for industrial commodities, leaving prices for some metals under pressure, especially battery raw materials. Price pressure in this sector has started to prompt mined supply cutbacks for some operations in higher-cost countries, following on from slowdowns and strategic shifts in related downstream manufacturing. This comes despite many governments increasing policy efforts to support the buildout of new supply chains for critical minerals.
Strong gold prices have failed to materially stimulate an exploration sector long swayed by the precious metal. Although our measure of overall activity levels improved at the end of the quarter, it remained well below year-ago levels, reflecting broad-based commodity-agnostic weakness. This comes despite aggregate market capitalization for our covered companies reaching a multiyear high at the end of the quarter, suggesting investors are more willing to look at the larger players to the detriment of smaller-cap explorers.
Join our analysts as we provide a recap of the September 2024 quarter, provide our near-term outlook and discuss key trends and topics:
- Commodity price trends, drivers and estimates
- M&A and mining financing
- Exploration and development metrics
Speakers
S&P Global Energy
Francesca Price
Senior Analyst, Critical Mineral Research, Metals & Mining
Francesca Price is a Senior Analyst in the Metals and Mining Research team at S&P Global Energy, based in London. With a background in mining geology, Francesca has been covering the metals markets since 2019, initially focused on precious metals and PGMs, and more recently expanding her scope to look at all critical raw materials. Her primary focus now is the policy environment of critical minerals, assessing how political, technological, economic, environmental and legislative changes will affect these commodity markets, in the context of the energy transition. Francesca joined the Department for Business and Trade in 2023 as a Senior Policy Advisor for critical minerals, helping deliver high priority workstreams within the UK’s Critical Minerals Strategy for HM Government. Francesca holds a BSc in Geology from the University of Leeds.
S&P Global Energy
Jasper Madlangbayan
Associate Research Analyst, Metals & Mining Research
Jasper Madlangbayan is an Associate Research Analyst with the Metals & Mining Research team at S&P Global Energy. He previously managed the Metals & Mining Client Operations team with S&P Global Market Intelligence, leading a team across different regions with expertise in mining data on S&P Capital IQ Pro, including mine production, reserves, resources, and exploration data.
Prior to joining S&P Global, Jasper worked as a geologist and environmental specialist, where he focused on mining permits, documented rehabilitation efforts, and collaborated with government units and mining companies on projects requiring technical expertise in engineering, geology, and hydrology. He holds a BSc in Geology from Adamson University in Manila, Philippines.
Moderator
S&P Global Energy
Mark Ferguson
S&P Global Energy
Director, Metals & Mining Research
Mark Ferguson is the Research Director for the Metals & Mining Research group at S&P Global Energy. Having worked for previous iterations of the division since 2004, he has extensive experience in producing exploration and supply-side studies and topical research for the mining sector.
Increasingly focused on energy transition-related needs pertinent to the metals & mining sector, the Research team tracks the industry’s upstream efforts while assessing demand and price expectations for key industrial and battery metals.
Mark holds a Bachelor of Science in Geology/Geography from Saint Mary’s University, and an MSc in Earth Sciences from Dalhousie University.