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Summary
Macroeconomic uncertainty persisted during the September 2025 quarter as the US continued its tariff strategy. By the end of August, effective global tariff rates applied by the US were at about 19% — the highest level since 1933. US-China trade tensions escalated again after a period of relative calm, with China increasing scrutiny of rare earth exports. A slowing economy prompted both the US Federal Reserve and the Bank of Canada to reduce rates, even as the specter of resurgent inflation loomed. Despite persistent economic uncertainty, global equity markets remained strong, with the TSX hitting an all-time high of 30,687 on Oct. 6, while the Dow Jones hit an all-time high close of 45,632 on Aug. 22.
For the mining industry, these mixed signals were reflected in a lackluster performance for many metal prices. The notable exception was gold, which moved continually upward, breaking $3,800/oz by quarter's end and continuing its upward movement into October. Copper remained relatively range-bound during the bulk of the September quarter before breaking higher in mid-September, shortly after the announcement of the Anglo-Teck merger.
The planned merger was one of the most significant news stories for the mining sector this year and by far the largest reported deal for 2025. The resulting major copper producer will boast annual copper production of 1.2 million metric tons, which is expected to increase to 1.35 MMt by 2027.
For an in-depth discussion of these key trends and topics, join our analysts as we recap the September 2025 quarter and provide our near-term outlook. The presentation will cover:
- Macroeconomic and geopolitical challenges
- Commodity price trends, drivers and estimates
- M&A, finance, exploration and development metrics
Speakers
S&P Global Energy
Kevin Murphy
Director of Metals & Mining Research
Kevin Murphy is a Research Director for Metals and Mining Research with S&P Global Market Intelligence and is based out of Halifax, Nova Scotia. He manages a group of analysts with the Metals & Mining Research group and writes analysis on various aspects of the industry including exploration, discoveries and production pipelines.
He began his career in metals and mining in 2007 as an analyst for Metals Economics Group which, through a series of acquisitions, became the core of S&P Global Market Intelligence’s Metals & Mining division. He is passionate about the mining industry and its critical role in the global economy.
S&P Global Energy
Elias Saba
Research Analyst, Metals & Mining Research
Elias Saba is an Analyst based in Toronto, Canada, working under the Metals and Mining Research Team at S&P Global Energy. The team offers analytical services covering various metals and corporate financials within the sector. Elias is also a contributor to the quarterly SOTM publication.
His prior experiences include working within the mining technology, and civil construction sectors.
Elias holds a B.Sc. Majoring in Geological Studies.
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S&P Global Energy
Karla Gelynne
Analyst, Mine Economics & Emissions
Karla Rivera is an Analyst with the Mine Economics and Emissions Team at S&P Global Energy. Based in Manila, her team develops cash flow models that deliver in-depth assessments of production costs and emissions across a wide range of mines and commodities.
With 11 years of experience at S&P Global, Karla began her career with the Metals and Mining Industry Content Team, where she built a strong foundation in data analysis and industry research.
Before joining S&P Global, she worked as a Plant Engineer, gaining valuable experience in chemical processing and operations management. Karla is a licensed Chemical Engineer and holds a Bachelor of Science in Chemical Engineering from the Mapúa Institute of Technology.
Questions?
Please contact us if you need more information or have trouble accessing the webinar.