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Summary
Macroeconomic and geopolitical uncertainty remained at the fore of market sentiment during the June 2025 quarter, fueled by a lack of clarity on tariff and trade policies as well as a significant escalation in conflict in the Middle East. While these challenges pressured the US dollar throughout the quarter, thus providing some support for metals prices, concerns over the net negative impact of tariffs on global demand continue to temper metals consumption outlooks. Companies also remain hesitant to make investment decisions, pending clarity on tariff levels and their ability to sell into various markets. Yet equity markets remained surprisingly buoyant, with the S&P 500 rising more than 10% in the quarter and the S&P/TSX Global Mining Index up more than 6%.
Turmoil between nations, whether regarding trade policies or physical conflict, has transformed critical minerals into an important negotiating tool for many countries, while US tariffs on steel, aluminum, and, more recently, copper further exacerbate trade tensions. Domestic supply concerns for many commodities have also encouraged governments of resource-rich countries to seek more rapid development of previously stagnant or stalled projects. After years of challenging development hurdles, these initiatives are welcome to a sector accustomed to long lead times in bringing their discovered resources to market.
Join our analysts as we provide a recap of the June 2025 quarter, provide our near-term outlook and discuss these key trends and topics:
- Macroeconomic and geopolitical challenges
- Commodity price trends, drivers and estimates
- M&A, finance, exploration and development metrics
Moderator
S&P Global Energy
Mark Ferguson
Director, Metals & Mining Research
Mark Ferguson is the Research Director for the Metals & Mining Research group at S&P Global Energy. Having worked for previous iterations of the division since 2004, he has extensive experience in producing exploration and supply-side studies and topical research for the mining sector.
Increasingly focused on energy transition-related needs pertinent to the metals & mining sector, the Research team tracks the industry’s upstream efforts while assessing demand and price expectations for key industrial and battery metals.
Mark holds a Bachelor of Science in Geology/Geography from Saint Mary’s University, and an MSc in Earth Sciences from Dalhousie University.
Speakers
S&P Global Energy
Patricia Barreto
Base Metals Senior Analyst – Metals & Mining Research
Patricia Barreto is a Senior Analyst in the Metals and Mining Research Team at S&P Global Energy, based in São Paulo. She specializes in the fundamental analysis of supply and demand to develop price outlooks for base metals markets.
Prior to joining S&P Global, she spent over eight years at zinc producer Nexa Resources SA, where she mostly acted as a zinc and copper analyst. Her expertise includes price forecasting, comprehensive supply and demand analysis, and commercial intelligence. Patricia holds a BE in Materials Engineering from the Federal University of ABC in Brazil.
S&P Global Energy
Matt Blundell
Senior Analyst - Geopolitics and International Affairs team
Matt Blundell is a Senior Analyst in the Geopolitics and International Affairs team at S&P Global Energy in Mexico City. In this role, he analyzes geopolitical developments and their intersections with commodity markets, supply chains, and industrial strategies. He also works on the coordination of Energy’ business strategies for Latin American markets.
Previously, Matt worked for the Australian Government in Australia, France, and Mexico, addressing a range of economic, political, trade and security issues. Most recently, he led business development for Baker McKenzie’s Latin American energy, mining, and infrastructure portfolio. He holds a Master of International Relations from the University of Melbourne and a Bachelor of Arts from the University of Canberra.
Questions?
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