US tariff threats send gold prices above $2,900/oz
The London Bullion Market Association (LBMA) gold price cleared two significant resistance levels in a week in early February, propelled first above $2,800 per ounce and then $2,900/oz. Escalating trade tensions, triggered by recent US tariff hikes on imports, and concerns about the impact on global economic growth have driven up gold demand and prices.
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Gold Mining Research
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Gold Exploration Trends
Gold exploration budgets down on value-oriented strategies
Gold exploration budgets declined 7% to $5.55 billion in 2024, despite high gold prices. The budgets accounted for 45% of global exploration but represented the lowest share for gold in the past decade. The number of gold explorers decreased 8% to 1,235 in 2024, influenced by consolidation among major companies and fewer junior explorers.
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Gold Resources
Gold in initial resources drops to 4-year low in 2023
Total gold contained in initial resources declined in 2023 to a four-year low of 37.1 million ounces, 7% lower than the 40 Moz announced in 2022. The number of gold initial resource announcements increased to a five-year high of 56. Yet only 30% contained more than 500,000 ounces of gold, decreasing the average to 0.7 Moz from 0.8 Moz in 2022. This marks the second consecutive year of decline for gold in initial resources, weighed down by reduced financings, exploration budgets and drilling activity.
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Gold Discoveries
Gold from major discoveries grows 3%, although recent discoveries remain scarce
According to our annual analysis of major gold discoveries, 350 deposits were discovered between 1990 and 2023, containing 2.9 billion ounces of gold in reserves, resources and past production. This is an increase from the 2023 analysis, which identified 345 deposits with 2.81 billion ounces of gold.
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Gold Mining Costs
Gold mine stripping ratios rise on high prices, grades continue declining
Since 2010, copper and gold head grades have dropped 7.6% and 13.4%, respectively. New high-grade operations in the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) have, however, stalled this decline for copper in 2022. In the last three years, we have seen gold mined and reserve grades start to align, a signal that with a higher gold price, marginal miners have had more leeway to reduce grades while maintaining profit margins. The global tonnage of ore and waste moved continues to increase, and the stripping ratio in 2023 is set to be the highest since 2015 at 2.51-to-1.
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Gold M&A Activity
Mining M&A in 2023 – Robust activity focused on gold
M&A activity in 2023 in the metals and mining industry is reported with a minimum deal value of $10 million and 1 million ounces of gold or 100,000 metric tons of base metal in acquired reserves and resources (R&R). M&A activity in the metals and mining sector that fit our criteria for this study has been steady year over year, albeit skewed by the megadeal between Newmont and Newcrest. In 2023, there were 47 deals — 30 focused on gold, 14 on copper and three on nickel — for a total deal value of $26.36 billion.
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Gold GHG Emissions
Primary gold GHG emissions intensities decline
Scope 1 and Scope 2 emissions per paid gold ounce produced from primary gold mines have been declining since 2021, primarily driven by the reduction in indirect greenhouse gas emissions from the increasing renewables share in electricity generation. Major companies are decarbonizing their operations through power purchase agreements and offsets, but tackling Scope 1 emissions is proving to be a much harder challenge. Based on the newly launched gold emissions curve, S&P Global Commodity Insights found that 329 primary gold mines emitted greenhouse gases at an average rate of 792 kilograms of CO2 equivalent per paid ounce of gold (kgCO2e/oz Au) produced, 39 kgCO2e/oz Au lower than in 2021.
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