North Carolina's environmental agency suggests the power sector could reduce emissions by between 60% and 70% below 2005 baseline levels by 2030, according to the state's draft plan to transition to a clean energy economy.
The North Carolina Department of Environmental Quality, or DEQ, said the state could pursue more programs to replace fossil fuels with cleaner energy sources, a carbon policy that includes emission reductions or a hybrid approach of those two options. If the state pursues cutting emissions by up to 70%, lawmakers would have to create more aggressive renewable energy targets, push for accelerated coal plant retirements and impose either a carbon reduction or cap target on the industry.
"The largest decrease in emissions occurs under two scenarios: accelerating coal retirements and a carbon mass cap due to their direct impact on fossil fuel use," the agency said in the report. Retiring all coal-powered plants by 2030 and participating in the Regional Greenhouse Gas Initiative, a market-based cap-and-trade program, would have the biggest impact on North Carolina's emissions, reducing them by 68% from 2005 levels.
"They also lead to substantial increases in renewable energy generation, approximately 33,000 GWh or 25% of total projected generation in 2030," the department added.
The initial policy and action recommendations come as part of Gov. Roy Cooper's 2018 executive order for the state to address climate change and embrace a clean energy future. The recommended target builds off of the initial proclamation, which included a goal to reduce greenhouse gas emissions by 40% by 2025 from 2005 levels.
"The Clean Energy Plan is a shared vision for the energy future we need in North Carolina. It includes consensus policy recommendations on the key changes necessary to combat climate change, create economic growth and modernize our power grid," DEQ Secretary Michael Regan said in an Aug. 16 news release.
In addition, the DEQ recommends requiring utilities to create electric vehicle pilots and develop projects focused on distributed energy resources and microgrids at state buildings and "critical infrastructure locations" such as hospitals.
"Developing modern regulatory tools, market structures and processes to achieve state goals can set us on a path to lower risk, lower-cost and lower-impact energy future," the agency said in the draft clean energy plan.
The public comment period on the draft plan is open until Sept. 9. A final version of the clean energy plan will be presented to Cooper by Oct. 1 as part of his executive order.
Clean energy and environmental proponents applauded North Carolina's draft proposal and Cooper's executive order. Gudrun Thompson, senior attorney at the Southern Environmental Law Center, said the focus on shifting from fossil fuels to renewables "is integral to lowering carbon pollution and avoiding the worst impacts of climate change." Luis Martinez, director of Natural Resources Defense Council's southeast energy activities, said the targets "are significant, aggressive and feasible for the state and the power sector."
The state's recommendations would particularly put pressure on North Carolina's investor-owned utilities, such as Duke Energy Corp. subsidiaries Duke Energy Carolinas LLC and Duke Energy Progress LLC and Dominion Energy Inc., which participated in the stakeholder process for the plan. Duke said it would respond during the public comment period.
"Duke Energy has significantly reduced carbon emissions by retiring coal and adding more renewables and cleaner natural gas," Duke Energy's North Carolina president, Stephen De May, said in a statement. "We are transitioning our system to even cleaner energy, while upholding our responsibility to provide reliable, affordable power to customers. We look forward to continued dialogue with diverse stakeholders to achieve the critical energy policy objectives for the state of North Carolina."
Duke's resource plans, submitted to North Carolina regulators last September, include the future retirement of certain coal-fired resources plus the addition of gas-fired and renewable resources, along with energy efficiency and demand-side management efforts.
