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NPCC foresees new wind, hydro in eastern Canada helping to meet summer demand

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NPCC foresees new wind, hydro in eastern Canada helping to meet summer demand

EasternCanada and the U.S. Northeast are expected to meet summer peak demand with thehelp of new generation capacity, largely from new wind and hydroelectricresources in Ontario and Quebec, a new report said.

TheNortheast Power CoordinatingCouncil's annual summer reliability , published April 28, forecastthat the region is expected to have a summer peak demand of 106,390 MW in July,which would be 1,050 MW lower than last year's "forecast coincident"peak demand of 107,440 MW. The regional entity's territory encompasses NewYork, the six states of New England, Ontario, Quebec, New Brunswick and NovaScotia.

"Hotmuggy weather resulting in the heavy use of air conditioning remains the singlelargest factor affecting peak electricity demand during the summer months,"Edward Schwerdt, president and CEO of NPCC, explained in a conference call,However, improvements in energy efficiency, demand response programs, andcontributions from behind-the-meter solar panels are expected to offset loadgrowth associated with projected economic activity, Schwerdt said.

Thereport found that the region will have adequate electricity supply this summer,with a spare operable capacity of 15,008 MW. However, limited transfercapabilities between Quebec and the Maritime provinces will reduce that spareoperable capacity to 9,262 MW, the report said. Furthermore, the week beginningJune 5 is expected to be the week with the lowest spare operable capacityforecast for the summer, with 8,373 MW expected to be available. The NPCC saidin a news releasethat the region's reliability will be strengthened once a number oftransmission projects needed to boost transfer capabilities within New York andNew England are completed.

Accordingto the report, 3,615 MW of new capacity was installed in the NPCC territorysince the previous summer. Overall, the area saw a net generation increase of2,715 MW once retirements, deratings, and other negative adjustments areincluded.

Ofall of the regions under NPCC's watch, Ontario saw the largest amount ofgeneration additions since the summer of 2015, with the installation of 2,267MW, which included 1,440 MW of wind resources. Retirements reduced the nettotal for Ontario, for an overall increase of 2,214 MW. Quebec also saw anoverall increase of 671 MW while Nova Scotia and New Brunswick had a netincrease of 75 MW. In comparison, NewYork ISO saw an overall loss of 165 MW due to mothballing andretirements, while ISO NewEngland Inc., which reported no retirements, had an overall loss of79 MW due to other adjustments.