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US daily power markets slip with load; Northwest dailies notch gains


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US daily power markets slip with load; Northwest dailies notch gains

Editor's Note: Please be advised that S&P Global Market Intelligence will no longer publish daily articles on price trends in the U.S. natural gas, electricity and emissions markets beginning June 1, 2018. Pricing data for these energy markets will continue to be available on the Market Intelligence platform.

Next-day power markets in the U.S. moved mixed to ultimately lower Thursday, May 10, owing to a lack of support from mostly lower Friday load forecasts.

Despite reports of an 89-Bcf net injection into natural gas storage during the week ended May 4, which was on par with market expectations and higher than historical averages, the front-month June futures contract closed the session up 7.7 cents at $2.814/MMBtu.

In other supply, total U.S. nuclear plant availability ramped up to above 85% early May 10.

East values sag with demand outlooks

Declining demand forecasts provided no support for next-day markets in the East on Thursday.

At next-day markets, deals at the New England Mass hub and PJM West slipped roughly $2 from the midweek and ranged in the mid-$20s at the former and the mid- to high $30s at the latter.

Day-ahead markets favored the downside as well with prices at the Mass hub, New York Zone G and Zone J shedding roughly $2 from Wednesday and averaging $24.18, $28.56 and $29.11, respectively, while DAMs at New York Zone A eased slightly and averaged $26.89.

Demand is set to fall ahead of the weekend. Load in New England may top out at 13,900 MW on Thursday and 13,190 MW on Friday, while demand in New York should crest at 17,360 MW on Thursday and 16,584 MW on Friday. The PJM Mid-Atlantic region may post peaks of 32,220 MW on Thursday and 31,532 MW on Friday, while the PJM Western region could hit highs of 51,846 MW on Thursday and 47,540 MW on Friday.

Midwest markets biased lower with load

Markets in the Midwest were flat to ultimately lower Thursday amid sagging Friday load forecasts. Power prices at PJM AEP-Dayton slipped by about $4 on the session and spanned the mid- to high $20s, while MISO Indiana packages were little changed from Wednesday and were pegged in the high $30s.

Looking at load, demand in the PJM AEP region should near highs of 15,993 MW on Thursday and 14,659 MW on Friday, while load in the PJM ComEd region may see peaks of 12,025 MW on Thursday and 10,775 MW on Friday.

Most Western US power market slip in revised trade; Northwest dailies firm

Low weekend demand associated with next-day schedule revisions alongside slack Friday demand forecasts worked to pull down prices at most locations in the West on Thursday.

The California ISO is looking at peaks of 29,536 MW on Thursday and 27,577 MW on Friday. Bogged down by load, on-peak power prices at South Path-15 fell more than $5 and ranged in the high teens.

Deals in the Southwest fell by more than $10 from Wednesday with action at Palo Verde quoted in the high teens to low $20s.

However, values in the Northwest rose $3 to $4 on the session and were heard in the low teens at Mid-Columbia and the low $20s at the California-Oregon Border.

Texas day-ahead biased higher with demand support

Day-ahead markets in Texas were flat to higher Thursday amid calls for elevated Friday demand.

The Electric Reliability Council of Texas should see load peak near 54,550 MW on Thursday and 55,441 MW on Friday.

At day-ahead markets, ERCOT Houston and ERCOT South saw packages add around a dollar and average $28.67 and $27.33, respectively, while DAMs at ERCOT West rose less than $1 and averaged $5.20. DAMs at ERCOT North ran the other way with packages slipping by less than a dollar, averaging $30.00.

Market prices and included industry data are current as of the time of publication and are subject to change. For more detailed market data, including power and natural gas index prices, as well as forwards and futures, visit our Commodities Pages.