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Itaú e Citi próximos de acordo; mudança de nome do Banco Nacional de México

Broadband Only Homes Skyrocket In 2018 Validating Top MSOs Connectivity Pivot

Street Talk Episode 40 - Digital Banks Take a Page Out of 'Mad Men'

Power Forecast Briefing: As retirements accelerate, can renewable energy fill the gap?

2019 Credit Risk Perspectives: Is The Credit Cycle Turning? A Fundamentals View


Itaú e Citi próximos de acordo; mudança de nome do Banco Nacional de México

* O Citigroup Inc. anunciou que mudará o nome da unidade mexicana de Banco Nacional de México SA para Citibanamex e que gastará mais 1 bilhão de dólares com suas operações no país para atualizar e expandir suas ofertas tecnológicas e rede de varejo. Como parte do plano, o Citi deverá adicionar 100 filiais digitais e mais de 2.500 caixas eletrônicos no país.

* As negociações entre Itaú Unibanco Holding SA e Citigroup Inc. para a compra, pelo Itaú, dos ativos bancários de varejo do Citi no Brasil estão em fase final e há uma alta probabilidade de que as duas partes assinem um acordo nos próximos dias, informou o Valor Econômico, citando três fontes com conhecimento do assunto.

MÉXICO E AMÉRICA CENTRAL

* Paulina Alejandra Del Moral Vela deixou o cargo de diretora-geral do Banco del Ahorro Nacional y Servicios Financieros SNC para assumir o cargo de Secretária do Trabalho no gabinete do governador do Estado do México, Eruviel Ávila, informou o El Economista

* O Canal Bank SA tem como objetivo expandir sua carteira de crédito em 20% a 25% como parte de mudanças na estratégia global de negócios do banco após sua aquisição do Banco Universal SA, informou o Capital Financiero, citando o CEO Roberto Brenes. O banco deverá concentrar-se especificamente na carteira atribuída ao setor agrícola.

* O diretor do Banco de México, Agustín Carstens, declarou que a próxima decisão de política do banco central dependerá do resultado das eleições presidenciais norte-americanas em novembro, informou a Reuters. "Se houver um bom resultado, nos antecipamos ao Fed e, possivelmente, não será necessário aumentar as taxas", declarou Carstens à TV local.

* A Fitch Ratings atribuiu nota de solidez financeira de seguradora de BBB- e nota de solidez financeira de seguradora em escala nacional de AA- para a Afianzadora Insurgentes SA de CV e a Afianzadora Aserta SA de CV, com perspectiva estável. Os níveis de eficiência de ambas as empresas têm-se mantido estáveis e competitivos desde junho, declarou a agência de classificação de risco.

* Os lucros globais dos bancos comerciais no México aumentaram 8,8% nos primeiros oito meses de 2016 em comparação com o mesmo período do ano passasdo, informou o El Financiero, citando dados da comissão de bancos e valores mobiliários CNBV.

* O processo de cancelamento do registro das entidades financeiras de múltiplas finalidades mexicanas, as Sofomes, que não renovaram seu registro até o prazo final de 6 de junho de 2015 é muito complicado, e a revogação para 1.231 Sofomes ainda está pendente depois de mais de um ano, informou o El Economista, citando a agência de proteção financeira do consumidor CONDUSEF.

BRASIL

* Os pedidos de falência no Brasil aumentaram 16,7% entre janeiro e setembro, enquanto os de recuperação judicial saltaram 70,2%, segundo dados da empresa de pesquisa de crédito Boa Vista SCPC.

* Os principais bancos do Brasil deverão apresentar novos planos de recuperação até o final do ano, com diretrizes de como reagirão em cenários sob pressão, informou o Valor Econômico, citando Murilo Portugal, diretor da federação de bancos FEBRABAN. "Esses planos proporcionarão maior previsibilidade, transparência e segurança na adoção de estratégias de recuperação por parte dos bancos para manter o funcionamento normal do sistema financeiro em situações de pressão", declarou Portugal.

* Os bancos brasileiros reduziram a concessão de novos empréstimos em 2015 e no primeiro semestre de 2016 em 3,2% e 6,8%, respectivamente, impulsionados pela recessão, pela queda no consumo, pela confiança mais fraca e pela redução dos investimentos, declarou a Fitch Ratings. "Esperamos que os bancos continuem com essa abordagem cautelosa para a demanda de crédito até que vejam sinais claros de que o crescimento econômico pode ser sustentado", declarou a agência de classificação de risco.

* Investidores, fundos de pensão e agências governamentais estão acusando grandes bancos de menosprezar investimentos com maus resultados no Brasil e estão exigindo cerca de 9,3 bilhões de reais em indenização desses bancos, que incluem o BNY Mellon Servicos Financeiros Dtvm SA, o Banco Bradesco SA, o BTG Pactual Group, o Banco Citibank SA, o Deutsche Bank AG e o Banco Santander (Brasil) SA, segundo informou O Estado de S. Paulo. Os investidores alegam que os bancos foram negligentes na supervisão de fundos ou foram co-responsáveis pelos prejuízos.

* A Itaúsa – Investimentos Itaú SA e a Cambuhy Investimentos Ltda., do Brasil, pretendem apresentar uma oferta conjunta para uma participação de controle na unidade de distribuição de combustíveis da empresa estatal de petróleo Petrobras em um acordo que pode chegar a 6 bilhões de dólares, segundo informou a Bloomberg News, citando "pessoas com conhecimento direto do assunto". As empresas de capital privado GP Investimentos SA e Advent International Corp. também estão considerando fazer uma oferta, disseram as fontes.

* A produção industrial no Brasil diminuiu 3,8% em agosto em comparação ao mês anterior e registrou queda de 5,2% no comparativo anual, informou a Bloomberg News, citando a agência de estatísticas nacional.

* A administração do presidente brasileiro Michel Temer apresentou ao Congresso uma proposta para limitar os gastos do governo, e uma comissão especial da Câmara dos Deputados deve votar a medida nos próximos dias, informou a Bloomberg News. A proposta foi revista para aumentar as despesas mínimas com saúde de 13,2% para 15% da receita corrente líquida em 2017. Anteriormente, o investimento em saúde seria elevado gradualmente até 2020.

* O prazo para que os brasileiros se inscrevam em um programa do governo de anistia para ativos no exterior não declarados poderá ser estendido de 31 de outubro para 16 de novembro, informou a Reuters, citando Rodrigo Maia, presidente da Câmara dos Deputados.

* Uma pesquisa feita pelo Ibope mostrou que o número de brasileiros que acreditam que o governo do presidente Michel Temer é "ótimo" ou "bom" aumentou ligeiramente de 13% para 14%, informou a Reuters. O número de pessoas que consideram o governo "ruim" ou "terrível" manteve-se em 39%.

* A S&P Global Ratings confirmou suas notas B+/B em escala global e brBBB-/brA-3 em escala nacional para o Banco Pan SA e o removeu da listagem de CreditWatch com implicações negativas. A medida seguiu uma ação semelhante para a matriz Banco BTG Pactual SA em setembro.

* A Generali, da Itália, estabeleceu uma parceria com o Banco BMG SA para vender seguros por um período de 20 anos a partir de janeiro de 2017, informou o Valor Econômico. A expectativa é de que o negócio proporcione um retorno financeiro de 1,5 bilhões de reais ao BMG ao longo de todo o período.

* Murilo Portugal, presidente da Federação Brasileira de Bancos, FEBRABAN, declarou que o Brasil começou a emergir da sua recessão econômica, mas que, para melhorias sustentadas, o Congresso deve aprovar a proposta para limitar aumentos nos gastos públicos, informou o Valor Econômico.

REGIÃO ANDINA

* O Banco de la Nación anunciou a nomeação de Luis Fernando Gonzalez Prada Saponara como diretor, em vigor a partir de 4 de outubro. 

* O Banco De Desarrollo De América Latina anunciou que aprovou um empréstimo de 60 milhões de dólares para o Bancolombia SA, que será utilizado para o desenvolvimento de projetos ambientais. O banco de desenvolvimento já desembolsou os primeiros 10 milhões de dólares, que o Bancolombia usará para sete iniciativas de desenvolvimento já identificadas.

* A Corporación Financiera de Desarrollo SA, do Peru, declarou que planeja leiloar títulos de 10 anos no valor de até 50 milhões de soles peruanos, embora a oferta seja expansível até 150 milhões de soles. Os títulos, que serão emitidos em 6 de outubro, terão uma taxa de juro anual fixa.

* O lucro dos bancos peruanos sofreu queda de 3,2% no comparativo anual nos primeiros oito meses de 2016, com dois bancos registrando perdas para o período, informou o El Comercio, citando o regulador de seguros e serviços bancários SBS. A taxa de inadimplência do setor subiu para 2,91% em agosto, em comparação aos 2,7% do mesmo período do ano passado.

CONE SUL

* A Argentina começou a comercializar títulos denominados em euros dimensionados pelo mercado com vencimento em janeiro de 2022 e janeiro de 2027, segundo a IFR. O título com vencimento em 2022 está sendo oferecido com um rendimento de cerca de 4,5% e o título de 2027, a cerca de 5,625%.

* O Banco Central de la República Argentina manteve sua taxa básica de juros Lebac de 35 dias em 26,75%, afirmando que as expectativas gerais de inflação para o último trimestre de 2016 estão acima da meta oficial do banco central de 1,5% ou menos. 

PANORAMA DA AMÉRICA LATINA

* A Moody's declarou que o índice de risco de liquidez caiu pelo sexto mês consecutivo em setembro dos 7,5% registrados em agosto para 7,1%. O índice cai quando a liquidez das empresas parece melhorar e sobe quando ela dá mostras de enfraquecimento.

A S&P Global Inc. adquire S&P Global Ratings e S&P Global Market Intelligence.

Paula Mejía contribuiu para esse artigo.

The Daily Dose tem um prazo editorial de 8 am horário de São Paulo, e verifica as fontes de notícias publicadas em inglês, português e espanhol. Alguns links externos podem exigir uma assinatura.


Technology, Media & Telecom
Broadband Only Homes Skyrocket In 2018 Validating Top MSOs Connectivity Pivot

Highlights

The segment stood at an estimated 23.6 million as of Dec. 31, 2018, accounting for 24% of all wireline high-speed data homes.

The following post comes from Kagan, a research group within S&P Global Market Intelligence.

To learn more about our TMT (Technology, Media & Telecommunications) products and/or research, please request a demo.

Mar. 20 2019 — The U.S. broadband-only home segment logged its largest net adds on record in 2018, validating Comcast Corp.'s and Charter Communications Inc.'s moves to make broadband, or connectivity, the keystone of their cable communication businesses.

The size and momentum of the segment also put in perspective the recent high-profile online-video video announcements by the top two cable operators as well as AT&T Inc.'s WarnerMedia shake-up and plans to go toe-to-toe with Netflix in the subscription video-on-demand arena in the next 12 months.

We estimate that wireline broadband households not subscribing to traditional multichannel, or broadband-only homes, rose by nearly 4.3 million in 2018, topping the gains from the previous year by roughly 22%. Overall, the segment stood at an estimated 23.6 million as of Dec. 31, 2018, accounting for 24% of all wireline high-speed data homes.

For perspective, broadband-only homes stood at an estimated 11.3 million a mere four years ago, accounting for 13% of residential cable and telco broadband subscribers.

The once all-powerful, must-have live linear TV model, which individuals and families essentially treated as a utility upon moving into a new residence, increasingly is viewed as too expensive and unwieldy in the era of affordable, nimble internet-based video alternatives. This has resulted in a sizable drop in penetration of occupied households.

As a result, continued legacy cord cutting is baked in and broadband-only homes are expected to continue to rise at a fast clip, with the segment's momentum in the next few years compounded by Comcast's, Charter's and AT&T's ambitious moves into online-video territory.

Note: we revised historical broadband-only home estimates as part of our fourth-quarter 2018, following restatements of historical telco broadband subscriber figures and residential traditional multichannel subscriber adjustments.

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Q4'18 multichannel video losses propel full-year drop to edge of 4 million

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Q4'18 multiproduct analysis sheds more light on video's fall from grace

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Listen: Street Talk Episode 40 - Digital Banks Take a Page Out of 'Mad Men'

Mar. 20 2019 — Some fintech companies are making hay with digital platforms that tout their differences with banks, even though they are often offering virtually the same products. In the episode, we discuss with colleagues Rachel Stone and Kiah Haslett the deposit strategies employed by the likes of Chime, Aspiration and other incumbent players such as Ally Financial, Discover and Capital One. Those efforts conjure up memories of a Don Draper pitch in Mad Men and likely will enjoy continued success.

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Watch: Power Forecast Briefing: As retirements accelerate, can renewable energy fill the gap?

Mar. 19 2019 — Steve Piper shares the outlook for U.S. power markets, discussing capacity retirements and whether continued development of wind and solar power plants may mitigate the generation shortfall.

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Credit Analysis
2019 Credit Risk Perspectives: Is The Credit Cycle Turning? A Fundamentals View

Mar. 15 2019 — On November 20, 2018, a joint event hosted by S&P Global Market Intelligence and S&P Global Ratings took place in London, focusing on credit risk and 2019 perspectives.

Pascal Hartwig, Credit Product Specialist, and I provided a review of the latest trends observed across non-financial corporate firms through the lens of S&P Global Market Intelligence’s statistical models.1 In particular, Pascal focused on the outputs produced by a statistical model that uses market information to estimate credit risk of public companies; if you want to know more, you can visit here.

I focused on an analysis of how different Brexit scenarios may impact the credit risk of European Union (EU) private companies that are included on S&P Capital IQ platform.

Before, this, I looked at the evolution of their credit risk profile from 2013 to 2017, as shown in Figure 1. Scores were generated via Credit Analytics’ PD Model Fundamentals Private, a statistical model that uses company financials and other socio-economic factors to estimate the PD of private companies globally. Credit scores are mapped to PD values, which are based on/derived from S&P Global Ratings Observed Default Rates.

Figure 1: EU private company scores generated by PD Model Fundamentals Private, between 2013 and 2017.

Source: S&P Global Market Intelligence.2 As of October 2018.

For any given year, the distribution of credit scores of EU private companies is concentrated below the ‘a’ level, due to the large number of small revenue and unrated firms on the S&P Capital IQ platform. An overall improvement of the risk profile is visible, with the score distribution moving leftwards between 2013 and 2017. A similar picture is visible when comparing companies by country or industry sector,3 confirming that there were no clear signs of a turning point in the credit cycle of private companies in any EU country or industry sector. However, this view is backward looking and does not take into account the potential effects of an imminent and major political and economic event in the (short) history of the EU: Brexit.

To this purpose, S&P Global Market Intelligence has developed a statistical model: the Credit Analytics Macro-scenario model enables users to study how potential future macroeconomic scenarios may affect the evolution of the credit risk profile of EU private companies. This model was developed by looking at the historical evolution of S&P Global Ratings’ rated companies under different macroeconomic conditions, and can be applied to smaller companies after the PD is mapped to a S&P Global Market Intelligence credit score.

“Soft Brexit” (Figure 2): This scenario is based on the baseline forecast made by economists at S&P Global Ratings and is characterized by a gentle slow-down of economic growth, a progressive monetary policy tightening, and low yet volatile stock-market growth.4

Figure 2: “Soft Brexit” macro scenario.5

Source: S&P Global Ratings Economists. As of October 2018.

Applying the Macro-scenario model, we analyze the evolution of the credit risk profile of EU companies over a three-year period from 2018 to 2020, by industry sector and by country:

  • Sector Analysis (Figure 3):
    • The median credit risk score within specific industry sectors (Aerospace & Defense, Pharmaceuticals, Telecoms, Utilities, and Real Estate) shows a good degree of resilience, rising by less than half a notch by 2020 and remaining comfortably below the ‘b+’ threshold.
    • The median credit score of the Retail and Consumer Products sectors, however, is severely impacted, breaching the high risk threshold (here defined at the ‘b-’ level).
    • The remaining industry sectors show various dynamics, but essentially remain within the intermediate risk band (here defined between the ‘b+’ and the ‘b-’ level).

Figure 3: “Soft Brexit” impact on the median credit risk level of EU private companies, by industry.

Source: S&P Global Market Intelligence. As of October 2018.

  • Country Analysis (Figure 4):
    • Although the median credit risk score may not change significantly in certain countries, the associated default rates need to be adjusted for the impact of the credit cycle.6 The “spider-web plot” shows the median PD values for private companies within EU countries, adjusted for the credit cycle. Here we include only countries with a minimum number of private companies within the Credit Analytics pre-scored database, to ensure a robust statistical analysis.
    • Countries are ordered by increasing level of median PD, moving clock-wise from Netherlands to Greece.
    • Under a soft Brexit scenario, the PD of UK private companies increases between 2018 and 2020, but still remains below the yellow threshold (corresponding to a ‘b+’ level).
    • Interestingly, Italian private companies suffer more than their Spanish peers, albeit starting from a slightly lower PD level in 2017.

Figure 4: “Soft Brexit” impact on the median credit risk level of EU private companies, by country.

Source: S&P Global Market Intelligence. As of October 2018.

“Hard Brexit” (Figure 5): This scenario is extracted from the 2018 Stress-Testing exercise of the European Banking Authority (EBA) and the Bank of England.7 Under this scenario, both the EU and UK may go into a recession similar to the 2008 global crisis. Arguably, this may seem a harsh scenario for the whole of the EU, but a recent report by the Bank of England warned that a disorderly Brexit may trigger a UK crisis worse than 2008.8

Figure 5: “Hard Brexit” macro scenario.9

Sources:”2018 EU-wide stress test – methodological note” (European Banking Authority, November 2017) and “Stress Testing the UK Banking system: 2018 guidance for participating banks and building societies“ (Bank of England, March 2018).

Also in this case, we apply the Macro-scenario model to analyze the evolution of the credit risk profile of EU companies over the same three-year period, by industry sector and by country:

  • Sector Analysis (Figure 6):
    • Despite all industry sectors being severely impacted, the Pharmaceuticals and Utilities sectors remain below the ‘b+’ level (yellow threshold).
    • Conversely, the Airlines and Energy sectors join Retail and Consumer Products in the “danger zone” above the ‘b-’ level (red threshold).
    • The remaining industry sectors will either move into or remain within the intermediate risk band (here defined between the ‘b+’ and the ‘b-’ level).

Figure 6: “Hard Brexit” impact on the median credit risk level of EU private companies, by industry.

Source: S&P Global Market Intelligence. As of October 2018.

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  • Country Analysis (Figure 7):
    • Under a hard Brexit scenario, the PD of UK private companies increases between 2017 and 2020, entering the intermediate risk band and suffering even more than its Irish peers.
    • Notably, by 2020 the French private sector may suffer more than the Italian private sector, reaching the attention threshold (here shown as a red circle, and corresponding to a ‘b-’ level).
    • While it is hard to do an exact like-for-like comparison, it is worth noting that our conclusions are broadly aligned with the findings from the 48 banks participating in the 2018 stress-testing exercise, as recently published by the EBA:10 the major share of 2018-2020 new credit risk losses in the stressed scenario will concentrate among counterparties in the UK, Italy, France, Spain, and Germany (leaving aside the usual suspects, such as Greece, Portugal, etc.).

Figure 7: “Hard Brexit” impact on the median credit risk level of EU private companies, by country.

Source: S&P Global Market Intelligence. As of October 2018.

In conclusion: In Europe, the private companies’ credit risk landscape does not yet signal a distinct turning point, however Brexit may act as a pivot point and a catalyst for a credit cycle inversion, with an intensity that will be dependent on the Brexit type of landing (i.e., soft versus hard).

1 S&P Global Ratings does not contribute to or participate in the creation of credit scores generated by S&P Global Market Intelligence.
2 Lowercase nomenclature is used to differentiate S&P Global Market Intelligence credit scores from the credit ratings issued by S&P Global Ratings.
3 Not shown here.
4 Measured via Gross Domestic Product (GDP) Growth, Long-term / Short-term (L/S) European Central Bank Interest Rate Spread, and FTSE100 or STOXX50 stock market growth, respectively.
5 Macroeconomic forecast for 2018-2020 (end of year) by economists at S&P Global Ratings; the baseline case assumes the UK and the EU will reach a Brexit deal (e.g. a “soft Brexit”).
6 When the credit cycle deteriorates (improves), default rates are expected to increase (decrease).
7 Source: “2018 EU-wide stress test – methodological note” (EBA, November 2017) and “Stress Testing the UK Banking system: 2018 guidance for participating banks and building societies”. (Bank of England, March 2018).
8 Source: “EU withdrawal scenarios and monetary and financial stability – A response to the House of Commons Treasury Committee”. (Bank of England, November 2018).
9 As a hard Brexit scenario, we adopt the stressed scenario included in the 2018 stress testing exercise and defined by the EBA and the Bank of England.
10 See, for example, Figure 18 in “2018 EU-Wide Stress Test Result” (EBA November 2018), found at:https://eba.europa.eu/documents/10180/2419200/2018-EU-wide-stress-test-Results.pdf

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2019 Credit Risk Perspectives: Is The Credit Cycle Turning? A Market-Driven View

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